UFC Fight Night 85 Hunt vs Mir Pick and DraftKings Card

I’m going to list my picks then provide an analysis of my Draft Kings picks.  I used to try to breakdown every fight.  That took forever and I usually didn’t finish so I never posted anything.  Breaking down only 5 fights is a lot easier and gives me the time to really stress why I think the fighters are going to win or finish.  (Finishes being the most important aspect of Fantasy MMA as that’s how we win cash.)

Mark Hunt vs Frank Mir

Pick Mark Hunt KO 1^st round

Neil Magney vs Hector Lombard

Pick Magney  UD

Jake Matthews vs Johnny Case

Case UD

Dan Kelly vs Antonio Carlos Jr.

Shoeface Sub 2^nd

James Te Huna vs Steve Bosse

Te Huna KO 1^st

Bec Rawlings vs Seohee Ham

Seohee Ham UD (research)

Brendan O’Reilly vs Alan Jouban

Jouban Sub 2^nd

Richard Walsh vs Viscardi Andrade

Viscardi KO 3^rd

Damien Brown vs Alan Patrick

Patrick 1^st KO

Ross Pearson vs Chad Laprise

Ross Pearson 3^rd KO

Leslie Smith vs Rin Nakai

Leslie Smith UD

Dan Hooker Vs Mark Eddiva

Hooker UD

My Draft Kings Card

Fighter	Value
Mark Hunt	$10,300
Neil Magney	$9,800
Johnny Case	$9,700
Allan Patrick	$10,800
Ross Pearson	$9,300

Mark Hunt vs Frank Mir

Mark Hunt is a K-1 Champion high level striker and the King of the “Walk-a-Way” Knockout.  He is going against one of the most notorious Heavyweight submission specialist in the UFC, breaking two arms in the Octagon.  Both of these guys are on a cross roads, however I see Mark Hunt pulling this off.  Despite the age of 41, Mark Hunt still has his power.  Mir’s striking has been on point but against guys who weren’t known for their striking ability.  Obviously Frank Mir has the grappling advantage but when is the last time you seen Frank Mir land a takedown.  In the Big Nog fight he tripped and fell off the cage and grabbed Nog’s arm luckily.  In the Arlovski fight he got the takedown but did little damage in the guard and got stood up.  I just don’t see Frank Mir getting Mark Hunt down without eating some shots to the face and If Mark lands those shots I don’t think Frank will be able to recover.  Picking Mark here.

Neil Magney vs Hector Lombard

Hector Lombard is a fucking monster, he’s got KO power and highly level Judo.  Now that he can’t take steroids anymore I don’t know how much of that is true anymore.   I’m looking forward to seeing what Hector looks like in the weigh-ins for this fight since getting popped for steroids.  He stated some bullshit excuse that he was sick and some lady give him a Z pack (anti-biotics). The steroid issue aside, we have seen that Neil can take a punch. He weathered the storm from Erick Silva, Kevin Gasselum and Hyun Gyu Lim all heavy hitters.  That’s the key to beating Hector, weathering Showeather’s storm then using that 9 inch reach advantage to enact his gameplan. Hector gasses easily, lets see if Neil can make it out the first round.     

Jake Matthews  vs Johnny Case

Can Crusher Alert Can Crusher Alert. Jake Mathew’s wins have all came from bums.   I’ve should have stated this before I started writing but I think all of the Australian fighters are bums. I know you guys are expecting a breakdown between Case and Matthews with a more skilled based analysis but that is hard to do with Can Crusher.  They look great against them and its hard to pick out their holes in their game. What I can take from Matthews’s last loss against, James Vick, was that he tried to muscle his opponent against the cage.  For his efforts, he ate uppercuts then Vick slipped his arm underneath Matthews neck and just proceeded to get choked out instead of fighting the hands.  I think the Justin Bieber look alike had an easy road in the UFC thus far.   I gotta go with Case on this one. 

Allan Patrick vs Damien Brown

Allan Patrick is fighting some random Australian fighter Joe Silva pulled out of Tae Bo class.  Tae Bo is what Australian call Muay Thai training that’s why Australian fighters get there ass kicked.   Damien Brown is taking this fight on 7 days’ notice.  Some of you might be like “Hey Gabe didn’t Kyle Noke lose to Alex Morono on also a week notice.  Exactly that’s my point, Kyle Noke is Australian therefore a garbage fighter.  There is a theme here, don’t  put money on the Australians.

Ross Pearson vs Chad Laprise  (UPSET PICK)

So I must say I don’t understand why Vegas has Laprise as the favorite.  Even if you do MMA math, there common opponent is Francisco Trinaldo both lost to him but Chad is the one that got knocked out by him.  I think the odds makers are looking way to hard into Chad’s record. Ross has been in the UFC for long time, I haven’t seen his chin go.  Most of his loses come to mental mistakes and some of the loses are bullshit decisions but I haven’t seen a degeneration in Ross’s skill set yet.  But I will say this about Chad Laprise that he uses a lot of movement to stay allusive. He has excellent footwork.  His kryptonite seems to be guys who move forward and push the pace.  You know what Ross Pearson does, move forward and push the pace.  The “Sage Killer” Bryan Barberena showed the holes in Laprise game when he came forward and made it a brawl. If Pearson keeps Laprise in his headlights, its going to be short day for the Brit. This is the upset pick, if you know a bookie this is the fight that I would be willing to put cash down for.    

Beware of Can Crushers

Beware of the Can Crushers

This is my biggest pitfall when I’m making my DraftKings card.  These Can Crushers ruin my evening.  I’ll be at home, seen a couple fighters on my card get a first round stoppage and I think to myself, I’ll be in the money until my Can Crusher shits the bed and ruins my fight card. 

Brandon Thatch ruined my card last Saturday.  Yes Brandon Thatch is a Can Crusher.  I picked Thatch because like most Can Crushers.  He came into the UFC destroying his opponents in spectacular fashion.  Joe Rogan and Goldie start calling him a top prospect.  He has a setback against Benson Henderson, so what, Benson has high level jujitsu and a former world champ.  I chalk that up to learning curve,  he also losses against Gunnar Nelson,  I chalk that up to just getting caught, perhaps Gunnar big right that setup the choke was attributed to working with Conor for their fights on UFC 189.   I mean Come On, Brandon Thatch is supposed to be the next big prospect. He’s a huge for the weight class, all tattated up, he should win, right?  Didn’t you see how he knocked out his first two opponents?  Yeah, he is coming off two loses but those are named opponents.   He is opponent is also coming off two loses as well and 800 day layoff due to injuries   Why wouldn’t I pick him. 

Well that is because like all Can Crushers they make their names fighting BUMS.  Let’s take a look at the record of Brandon Thatch’s first two opponents for the last seven fights.   

Justin Edwards (2-7)                                      Paulio Thiago  (2-7)

Opponent	Win/Lose		Opponent	Win/Loss
Joe Proctor	Loss		Sean Spencer	Loss
Rasmey Nijem	Loss		Gasan Umalatov	Loss
Brandon Thatch	Loss		Brandon Thatch	Loss
Josh Neer	Win		Michel Przeres	Win
John Maguire	Loss		Dong Hyun Kim	Loss
Jorge Lopez	Win		Siyar Bahadurzada	Loss
Clay Harvison	Loss		David Mitchell	Win

These two fighters are the definition of a Can fighter and if you don’t know here is the Wikipedia definition.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tomato_can_%28sports_idiom%29

Erick Silva

Erick Silva is the most notorious Can Crusher there is in the UFC.  Mostly because the UFC spreads out his Can fights with actual opponents to hide the fact he just betting up Tomato Cans.  Erick Silva has 12 fights in the UFC  (7-5) (* Not counting the Carlos Prater fight as a loss, Mario Yamakei is a horrible ref and the shots he landed were legal it shouldn’t have been a disqualification, Joe Rogan is the name and showed him on the replay they were clean shots during his fighter interview).  None of the fighters he beat are currently in the UFC, all of them have been cut, including Prater.  Erick Silva fools you with his highlight heels and his first round KO’s and Submissions but Erick Silva is a can crusher.

I was distracted for last week’s card didn’t get a chance to do the research necessary to avoid picking a Can Crusher.    Don’t forget to research the quality of the opponent, forget spectacular nature of the win. 

The flame that burns twice as bright, burns half as long. 

Holm vs Tate: Miesha’s Path to Victory

Wow, Four months after the Serra-style “shock the world” KO of Ronda Rousey. Holm is back in the Octagon against No. 1 Contender Miesha Tate.  I will tell you this, Miesha Tate is a tougher matchup for Holly Holm than Ronda Rousey.

I think this fight is going to come to game plan and adjustments in the ring. We all watched Rousey fight where Rousey just kept coming charging forwarded and kept getting picked apart.  Miesha showed she could make adjustments in the Jessica Eye fight.  Eye was winning the early exchanges, then Miesha made some adjustments in her striking and BOOM dropped Eye in the first round with a big punch. 

When it comes to game plans, Holly Holm’ game plan is to keep the distance.  Holly used a lot of footwork and a lot of lateral movement in her last fight.  Miesha’s game plan has to be to effectively close the distance.  Not by rushing in but by cutting off the cage. Not only should Miesha impede her movement by cutting her off, she also needs to attack her legs.  Miesha shouldn’t even attempt a takedown for the first two rounds.  Miesha needs to maintain Octagon control, attack Holly’s legs and if she can, hold her against the cage.  Foot stomps!!.  Wearing out the legs is key.

Miesha also needs to worry about her cardio when she is working against the fence.  She is going to have to make Holly work harder to improve her position while maintaining a dominant position without letting the ref return them to the center of the Octagon.   She should make it a grueling fight.  Planting her forehead against Holly’s upper body and press her against the fence.   Holly holm is probably the strongest 135 lbs in the division.  She is long and lean and Miesha is not going to be able to out muscle her, so her technique is going to have to be on point. 

The next key to victory is countering those front leg sidekicks.  This is going to be Holly’s primary weapon.  Holly loves to use this technique, to keep her opponents from closing the distance.  Miesha needs find a way to counter this technique by timing side step counter strike or takedown. 

I’m predicting Miesha to win this one; Miesha has the durability and the experience to squeak out a win.  Holly is going to be concerned  about the takedown.  Holly Holm will probably be on her bike again. Miesha can’t get over aggressive and let Holly Holm sit down on that counter left, while she charges in.  When she does come in she has to use superior head movement.  This is going to be a snoozer of a fight, if Miesha wants to win. 

Predication Miesha Tate Split decision

UFC Fight Night 81

Kountermove                                    Draft Kings

Ben Saunders                                    Dominic Cruz

Travis Browne                                   Iliir Latifi

Rob Font                                              Travis Browne

Chris Wade                                         Paul Fielder

Charles Rosa                                      Eddie Alverez

Francimar Barroso vs Elvis Mutapicic

I planned on picking his first opponent before he was replaced by some random dude.   So Francimar Barros is a giant light heavyweight.  He is big slow and gasses but he is fighting a dude on 8 days notice who is essentially a middle weight taking the fight because he wants his shot in the UFC.  I think Francimar has the tools to get passed Elvis but once Elvis drops down to middleweight look take notice he could be a good prospect.

Pick Francimar I think Francimar will be able to bully his opponent being the bigger fighter.  Elvis has been in the smaller promotions but he has shown some really good power with KO of Cezar Ferrria (whose chin is made of glass). Francimar is a big guy but his striking isn’t at the level where he is picking people apart, especially with his subject cardio.   I’m staying away from this fight.  Draft Kings has Barroso at $10,000 Mutapicic at $9,400 not much of gap for a guy on short notice. Kountermove has it Barroso $5000 Mutapicici $4600.  Avoid these picks

Rob Font vs Joey Gomez

Joey Gomez is coming on this fight short notice and is undefeated.   I’ve watched some of his fights.  He’s fighting real small dudes. Yeah, I know he is 135 but the dudes he has been fighting aren’t on a  par with the UFC.  Font has proven himself and his knockout power. I’m going with Font. Especially since Gomez had pulled out his fight on Jan 8^th for a rib injury.  Now he is ready for a debut.  I think he is still hurt and he is just trying to get to the big show. 

Pick Rob Font – Font is a solid pick DK Font - $10,600 Gomez - $8,800 Kountermove  - Font - $5200 Gomez - $4400.

Ilir Latifi Vs Sean O’Connell 

Both of these guys have had some setbacks but in terms of loses to higher competition Sean O’Connell has not been fighting any world beaters.  Latifi also has the grappling advantage in this one.  Though, O’Connell has two straight TKO’s they were to lesser opponents.  This fight won’t be on the feet long enough for O’Connell to enact his game plan. 

Pick – Iliir Latifi is a most pick, just pick him regardless of the cost.

Jimmy Hettes August Mendes   Kyle Bochniak vs Charles Rosa

Oh man here we go again.  Kyle Ochiak, this dude is undefeated but he is fighting tomato cans, on top of that he is also fighting Charles Rosa.   Analysis over.  Charles Rosa last lost was an exciting split decision against Yair Roderguz.  Don’t let Rosa record scare you, this last minute replacement will be quick work for Rosa.  Rosa is the superior fighting who had a full camp.

Pick: Charles Rosa don’t care about the cost.  Charles Rosa is $4800 on Kountermove he is a must grab. 

Paul Felder vs Daron Cruckshank

Two great strikers that love to put on a show.  Both of these guys need to learn the rest of the game, THE GROUND. They are both coming up short and a different look would help open up their striking.   But there is a clear line of superior defense.  We saw Paul Felder go toe to toe with both Ross Pearson and Edson Barboza. ( I actually think Pearson is the better and when they fought Pearson was robbed in the decision by the fans roars, every time Barboza landed something or was perceived to land something.) The point is, losing a decision to one of the best strikers in the division and Crucskank is getting finished by some of the best strikers in the division.  Felder all the way.   Cruckshank needs to go to Bellator he would do better there. 

Pick: Fielder is on the bottom rung of the most picks Cruckshank might be able to survive the onslaught.  Fielder is at the top of the budget at both KM and DK.  I’m not confident in Fiedler finishing this fight.

Maximo Blanco vs Luke Sanders

I’m curious to see the Octagon debut of Luke Sanders.  I’m not a fan of Maximo. I doubt his conditioning.  I think Luke is actually a step up in competition for Blanco.  Luke is taking this fight on short notice though.  Tough to call.

Pick: I’m going against Blanco just because I want to see him lose.  I would completely stay away from this fight all together.  I hate these Octagon debut guys but if you must. Pick Luke.

Chris Wade vs Mehdi Baghdad

I totally forgot who Mehdi was until I was reminded.  Ok so I like Mehdi. He fought Artem Lobov in the fights to get into the house in the last season of TUF.  But he got beat by Juicy J in a majority decision.  I can easily the “Decisionator” Chris Wade winning another decision.  Chris Wade by decision.

Pick: I’m picking Chris Wade in my Kountermove card because I need a winner and he fits my budget.  I’m confident that he will win but maybe Chris will step his game and show us something new. 

Tim Boetsch vs Ed Herman

The battle of the king of the Journeymen.   I’m giving Boetsch the striking and power advantage and I’m giving the ground game advantage to Herman.  These guys are coming to their last couple of fights left in their careers.  These guys have been around for awhile Ed Herrman has been fighting since 2003 and made his UFC debut in 2006 with a record of 22-11 while Tim Boetsch has been fighting since 2006 and made his UFC debut in 2008 Boetsch sports a record of 18-9.  Interesting stat line.    I’m going with Boetsch he has less miles and I’ve seen Ed Herman let wrestlers pin him against the cage too much.  I also think the inactivity of Herman is indicative of his mileage.   Boetsch will be looking for the finish.    

Pick Boetsch he is the cheapest in KM at $4700 as KM has Herman at $4900, while Draftkings has it with Boetsch being $10,500.  I would stay away from Boetsch on Draftkings he cost too much.  Herman still has a decent ground game. That is Boetsch weakness. 

Patrick Cote vs Ben Saunders

I’ve been thinking about this fight.  Patrick Cote is known for his punching power.  Ben Saunders has the range advantage especially with his kicks.  Ben Saunders is going to keep the range.  Patrick is going to try and put Saunders  on the cage.  Ben will be able to reign in knees from the clinch. When it hits the ground its all Saunders.  If Cote tries to take this to the ground, it won’t end well.  I’m looking forward to this fight, this one is going to be a close one.  I think this fight will show where each fighters ceiling is. 

Pick: I’m picking Ben Saunders but picking either one is risky.  Both KM and DK have Ben Saunders as the slight favorite. 

Ross Pearson  vs Francisco Trinaldo

Wow, ok this is going to be a tough fight to call again.  Ross Pearson has excellent boxing.   Francisco is also a good striker.  However, I’ve seen Ross get rocked a lot in fights.  Trinaldo has never been finished by KO. He is getting up in age, but I think he gets it done.  If Trinaldo gets the finish its going to come by an overhand left.

Pick: UPSET alert .  If you are looking for an upset pick on DK card.  Francisco Trinaldo is that pick at $9,100 he is priced right.  However, on the flip side Kountermove is going against Vegas again.  Ross is the favorite by -150 +130.  I would avoid Francisco on KM cards as there is a good chance this fight goes the distance. 

Travis Browne vs Matt Mitrone

Meathead has a ceiling and Travis Browne is that ceiling.  Matt is more of a gatekeeper for the new guys.  Matt is athletic has great footwork but he makes a lot of mental mistakes.  On the other hand Travis Browne is also athletic and has proven that he can take a punch.  Travis Browne recognized the mistakes he made in his last fight he did over extend when trying to attack Aroloski.  As a fantasy must you have to pick the Heavyweights.   These guys are guaranteed KO machines. 

Pick: Travis is going to bounce back from his last fight.  This is going to be an entertaining fight.  Expect a finish.  So that being said Travis is on the cheaper side.   I think his last loss dropped his value down, but don’t be afraid this pick.

Anthony Pettis vs Eddie Alvarez

Anthony Pettis is the favorite in this, he is an excellent striker and has awesome submissions.  However his takedown defense sucks.  Eddie just needs to fight a smart fight.  I don’t think Antony Pettis is going to finish Eddie.  He has the ability but I think Eddie is going to do a lot of dirty boxing and just keep Anthony Pettis against the cage. 

Pick I’m picking Eddie.  I think he is going to pressure Pettis and just put a grinding fight on.  Pettis needs to much space to fight, I think  Eddie is going to smoother the guy.  I’m picking Eddie as my upset pick. If you need a cheap upset pick especially in DraftKings. Pick Alvarez.  Eddie is only smart pick if you are hurting for cash.  I agree Pettis is favorite however, I would stay away from Pettis in all DK cards, he cost too much and he is going against a very tough opponent. 

Dominic Cruz vs  TJ Dillashaw

I think these guys are similar fighters with similar skills.  They both have similar style of footwork.  TJ has the wrestling advantage.  The Elephant in the room is, will Cruz be able to comeback with all of his injuries.  Did he change his training?  I think Cruz is going to be the same Cruz from before in his comeback fight against Takeya Mizagaki.  I think the biggest thing about this fight is Cruz’s reach advantage.  I also believe that Cruz is in Dillashaw’s head.

Pick Cruz.  Fantasy must you have to pick the main card fight.  Its 5 five rounds so if it goes to decision you get two extra rounds to gather points.  Also Cruz is a cheap pick in DraftKings and is a must pick.

 

 

10 point must system in MMA

So everyone is calling the Condit vs Lawler fight a robbery.  To preface is this.  I was pretty drunk by the main event.  Should have started with beer rather than hitting up the whiskey first.  Doesn’t matter it was a close fight.  Everyone says it came down to round 3.  It came to one round and the debate is power over abundance.  I don’t even consider this fight to be the litmus  test for robberies. I still think Hendricks vs GSP is one of the bigger title fight robberies.  There are tons of other robberies that happen this year.  Like Beneil Dariush vs Michael Johnson there are tons of other bad judging calls.  I’ve been thinking about them and I’m not upset about these calls. I’m kind of even happen about them. Let me explain first before you go off on a tirade.  I think every one of these fighters needs to think about how the judges might fuck this up when they are recovering in their corners. I think their corners need to error on the side of caution or reinforce that the judges could see it a different way.  We all want the submission or the knockout but I understand it doesn’t come that easy.  I really want to see the fighters coming out and trying to win the fight.  If you anyone saw the first fight on Fight Pass and saw how Joe Soto came out there to try and win that fight in the last round.  I want to see fighters doing that all of the time.  He

What the real discussion is how you judge a jab or kick.  Or even a jab to a takedown.   I don’t know who these judges are but they could be of the thought that if you are on top you are winning school.  However, I for one, value damage more.  If you rock or cut your opponent, I’m going to score that higher than a takedown.  If you are on top you have to be trying to pass or trying to throw strikes that hurt your opponent.  I’m not counting those ticky tack body shots in full guard while your opponent is controlling your head.  The tricky part is judging submission attempts.   Guillotines and triangles are tough to judge because you don’t know how tight those choke are, also on top of that you are usually on the bottom when you get them locked in.   It’s easier for arm locks because you knew arms aren’t supposed to be bend a certain way and the position of their arm is very telling.  How do you score takedown that a guys on the bottom lands 10 elbows from the bottom and gets back to his fight within 10 seconds.  Do you give it to the guy throwing the elbows or the guy who took him down.  My solution is fire the crazy judges who don’t know what they are doing and remind fighters not to leave their fates in the hands of others.