UFC 232: Jones vs Gustafsson 2

Weight class				Method
Light Heavyweight	Jon Jones	vs.	Alexander Gustafsson	Jones** Dec
Women's Featherweight	Cris Cyborg (c)	vs.	Amanda Nunes	Cyborg 4rd TKO
Welterweight	Carlos Condit	vs.	Michael Chiesa	Chiesa Sub 2nd Rd
Light Heavyweight	Ilir Latifi	vs.	Corey Anderson	Anderson Dec
Featherweight	Chad Mendes	vs.	Alexander Volkanovski	Volkanovski Dec
Heavyweight	Andrei Arlovski	vs.	Walt Harris	Arlovski Dec
Women's Featherweight	Cat Zingano	vs.	Megan Anderson	Zingano Dec
Bantamweight	Douglas Silva de Andrade	vs.	Petr Yan	Yan 1st KO
Lightweight	BJ Penn	vs.	Ryan Hall	Penn TKO 3rd*
Bantamweight	Brian Kelleher	vs.	Montel Jackson	Kelleher Dec
Bantamweight	Andre Ewell	vs.	Nathaniel Wood	Wood Dec
Middleweight	Uriah Hall	vs.	Bevon Lewis	Hall Dec
Welterweight	Curtis Millender	vs.	Siyar Bahadurzada	Bahadurzada Dec

*This is purely a Fandom pick he is probably going to lose.  I just love BJ Penn this pick is from the heart

** For the Record I hate Jon Jones in any movie Jon Jones would be the bad guy Gustafsson would lose but Jones will win this fight and later be stripped for either popping for a different substance or beating his wife.  

My DraftKings Picks

Nathaniel Wood (-115) vs Andre Ewell (+105)

Ewell made his Octagon debut against Renan Baro in September with a split decision win.   One of the biggest takeaways from that fight was his ability to get off the bottom when he was takendown. I think a big reason why we saw Andre on the ground that much in the fight is because Renan Baro tasted his power and didn’t want anymore of that.  Yeah Nathaniel Wood also made his Octagon debut this past Summer against Johnny Eduardo with a 2nd round submission.  The thing that I was impressed with his chin.  I think that that is going to carry him through this fight.  I was impressed with his ability in a scramble to secure a choke  The key

To this fight is going to be cardio.  I think Nathaniel’s ability to take Ewell’s power in the early rounds is going to pay off. My Pick is Nathaniel Wood by Decision.

Petr Yan (-295) vs Douglas Silva De Andrade (+265)

Petr Yan is prospect from Russia with a ten and one record.  Great striker probably would have KO’ed his last opponent but his had was made   out of granite.  The thing about his opponent Douglas Silva De Andrade that he is very wild.Very wild.  Petr Yan is a lot better at finding his range and landing his shots.  While Douglas Silva De Andrade does a lot of spinning shit on the outside to dry off his opponent.  Petr Yan 1st round KO. 

Cat Zingano (-145)  vs Megan Anderson (+135)

Cat Zingano is going to out wrestle Megan Anderson. She might even finish on the top via ground in pound or submission.  Relentless throws and takedowns.  Cat Zingano via decision.

Holly Holm out grappled her I really only needed the first sentence.  

Chad Mendes (-140) vs Alexander Volkanovski (+130)

So Chad Mendes looked great in his comeback fight against Myles Jury.  It seem like the two years did him well. His opponent Volkanovski has been on a tear and this run reminds me of Chad Mendes second run a title shot.  He has been very impressive in every outing constant pressure high volume strikes on the feet and the ground.   So I’m putting these stats up here to   show how Volkanovski’s output:

	Chad Mendes	Alexander Volkanovski
Strikes Landed per Min. (SLpM)	2.76	6.09
Striking Accuracy	49%	63%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. (SApM)	2.14	2.55
Defense	68%	63%

If you are looking for an upset pick this one of mine.  The striking differential is striking but you have to factor in all the tough fights that Mendes had McGregor, Edgar and Aldo twice.  Look for Vokanovski to keep a higher pace. I’m picking Volkanovski via decision.

Ilir Latifi (-135) vs Corey Anderson (+125)

So i was going to pick Ilir Latifi but then i looked at their stats:

STRIKING (SIGNIFICANT STRIKES)	Ilir Latifi	Corey Anderson
Strikes Landed per Min. (SLpM)	2.37	4.55
Striking Accuracy	42%	47%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. (SApM)	2.65	2.20
Defense	52%	59%
GRAPPLING
Takedowns Average/15 min.	2.33	5.48
Takedown Accuracy	37%	52%
Takedown Defense	100%	75%
Submission Average/15 min.	0.7	0.0

From the time i started looking into the stats of this sport Strikes per min, Takedowns per min, and Knockdowns have been the best predictors for this sport.  Corey Anderson has a lead in both those areas.  Also that 100% takedown defense is 100% because he hasn’t fought any wrestlers other than Ryan Bader who didn’t need the takedowns because he was winning on feet and KO’ed him out.  Corey Anderson via Decision.

Cris Cyborg (-240) vs Amanda Nunes (+220)

So Cyborg is a monster.  That was going to be my pick but let’s check out the stats.  For the hell of it.  I’m still picking Cyborg. As a reminder the highest predictors for winning a fight are tthe rate Strikes, Takedowns and knockdowns.

STRIKING (SIGNIFICANT STRIKES)	Cris Cyborg	Amanda Nunes
Strikes Landed per Min. (SLpM)	7.02	4.55
Striking Accuracy	52%	51%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. (SApM)	1.79	2.88
Defense	70%	56%
GRAPPLING
Takedowns Average/15 min.	0.85	1.82
Takedown Accuracy	62%	40%
Takedown Defense	91%	79%
Submission Average/15 min.	0.3	0.6

Amanda Nunes is going to get tired.  Cyborg is going to be in her face. Pressing Amanda backwards, and it's hard to land effective strikes going backwards. I don’t see Amanda winning this and I think its cute that fans think that Amanda’s has got a chance. Cyborg TKO 4rd at the latest.  

Breaking down the Main Card

Before I get into the breakdown I don’t think this card has the buzz it should.  I don’t know if its the lack of a media tour or the casual fans knowledge of Khabib.  Or has the hardcore fan base adjusted their expectation for main events pulling out last minute.  Something is missing here, despite what Dana is saying on how this fight is trending. I don’t think this fight is going to do Diaz McGregor numbers. I think maybe because I’m comparing this fight to Mayweather/McGregor fight that was more show than sport. People who don’t watch either sport watched it because that’s what everyone was talking about.   That was huge. But this event is really taking the best of the division against each other. The clash of styles is really where the story line lies when you talk about this fight. A classic Striker vs Grappler contest. I’m just really excited because I don’t know what’s going to happen. Ok, Let’s break this down.

I was going to break this fight down with tons of stats and numbers but those things really don’t mean anything because both of these fighters are great at what they do.  Khabid has great GNP and control from the top. Conor has an excellent ability to measure range and distance to land that accurate left hand. I don’t know who is going to win.  I can see Conor sleeping Khabib with a left hand just as easily as I can see Khabib draining Conor with top control and punches to get a finish. However, I’m leaning towards Conor.  When I say leaning I’m giving him a 51% chance of winning the fight. Watching Khabib’s fights I don’t see him doing what he did with Edson Barboza because there is no way he can close the distance on Conor without getting clipped.   I think the key strategy for this fight is how well can Khabib execute that ankle pick takedown. The other aspect of the game is what does Conor have off his back when it does go to the ground. Khabib has said it multiple times in his interviews leading up to the fight. His game plan is simple “take him to the ground” “make him tired” “Smash”. Getting up from the bottom is exhausting and it will tax Conor’s gas tank.  Which is questionable. I have yet to see anyone attack Khabib from the bottom position. I don’t know what’s going to happen. I’m super excited. I’m giving Conor the slight edge but I don’t know but I can’t wait. I am super pumped for this fight.

Did the PFL just devalue my ticket?

I was having happy hour with a friend of mine this past Thursday and I was making my way down 7^th street in Chinatown when a man walked up to me and put something in my hand.  Usually its some flyer to where I would find the nearest trash can but to my surprise it was an actual FREE ticket vouchers for the PFL event coming up this Thursday.  So, going further back I actually saw these tickets on the ground by my house in DC on Wednesday. I assumed they were tickets to Arena football and the only way for me to go to Arena football were if you were put the tickets in my hand. I will not bend over to go to Arena Football game.   Hindsight is 20/20 and I should have bent over to get a closer look.   Anyway, back to Thursday, so my first reaction was what the hell I bought floor seats two days after the ticket release date and now some random dude just hands my free tickets.  Why did I spend all of that money if the PFL are just giving tickets a way?  On my way to catch the bus during HH I even saw more tickets on the street.  I picked them up this time.  My question is? Does this devalue my ticket? On the back of the ticket it says voucher is redeemable for $15-49. Which are nose bleed seats.  However, when I went to turn them in today.  They were in section 109 which are valued at $75, half of what I paid for floor seats.  Let’s face it I was always going to buy tickets to this event. I’m hardcore fan of MMA. I have an MMA blog and I’m sure my only reader is my wife and not I’m not even positive she reads these posts. I’m not going to act like I know the details of running an MMA promotion but giving seats away isn’t a good way to make money but maybe the PFL is banking on the second season or the playoffs to regain the revenue to pay those million-dollar salaries it promises.   As a fan of the sport I like the idea of getting new fans and maybe this way the PFL will be even bigger giving more opportunities to fighters and drawing bigger names to the promotion.   On the hand, I feel kind of gypped, that I could have saved some cash and sat a couple rows back for free.  I don’t know.  Like I said before, I was going to spend the money as soon as I heard the date, but the real question is does this experience leave a bad taste in my mouth. Will I spend that cash the next time knowing I could just hang out in front of the Capital One Arena a couple days before fight week to score some free seats.  Still looking forward to the event.  See you PFL on July 5^th.