The Numbers Don't Lie: My Journey in Understanding Statistics

I've been at this blog for sometime and I have been really trying figure out why I' am so bad at my picks.  I've been recognizing my bias  I think jiu-jitsu specialist will always pull off an amazing submission and my other problem is my fandom also gets in the way. I've started to go back on my picks to see why I thought X was going to beat Y.  What were my preconceptions. Where did I get those preconceptions and were those thoughts valid.  One fight in particular that I went back to analyze was the Clay Guida vs Erik Koch.  I thought based on Clay Guida's last fight with Brian Ortega that Guida's chin was gone and he was aging out of the sport.  I was wrong in this assumption but the odds makers made the same assumption. But I went back and looked at that Ortega/Guida fight.  Guida looked great in the first round.  He dropped Ortega in the 1st. The second was up for grabs but I gave Guida the nod for the 2nd round.  Ortega did his thing and pulled out another late round finish after pressuring Guida landing a devastating knee to put Guida away.  Understanding how dangerous Ortega was off his back, Guida really didn't commit to takedowns out of fear of being submitted.  Take that into account Guida not having one of his tools at hand and winning the striking for 2 out of 3 rounds.  Guida had a better shot than expected and proved that during the Koch fight. I learned that I really need to take stock of the fighter's ability based on their performance rather than inserting my own narrative with any analysis.

After recognizing that another problem with my picks is my lack of total recall of every round in a fight.  There are a lot of fights.  The UFC puts on fights every week and a lot of time I've got a decent buzz on so its hard to remember every round of every fight.  I do re-watch parts to jog my memory but that's also time consuming as well.  So I decided to go on to FightMetric and look up the actual stats for each fight.  I noticed that they gave access to the fight data for academic purposes.  They had an article titled "Predictive Modeling of Mixed Martial Arts Fights Using Novel Fight Variables" I started reading the article and quickly found that I had no idea what those formulas meant.

After that I was a man on a mission. Understanding that building my own model combined with my actual fight knowledge. I would eliminate my bias and increase the accuracy of my fight picks.  I found an online course through the UT Austin called Fundamentals of Data Analysis.  Its great course I'm learning the basics right now but it uses a data modeling program called "R".  So by the end of the course I should be well on my way to building my own model.   I'm quite excited about learning this material. This has probably been the first time I've enjoyed learning in a long time.  I went through college begrudgingly especially graduate school.  The only thing that kept me motivated in Grad School was understanding the government was paying for my degree and if I did not pass I would have to pay for it on my own.  The self pacing of the course is a gift and a curse.  It gives me flexibility but had a bit of a break as of late.  Work has been busy but its going to slow down again and I can start teleworking again which will allow me to work on me to wrap up these stat classes. 

Fuck Jon Jones

The B sample came back positive.  Hearing the news, my thoughts were poor D.C.  He went through so much pain and sorrow after that loss.  He looked so good in that fight. He didn’t let Jon hold him against the cage, like the first fight. He was connecting with his strikes, even knocked out Jon’s mouthpiece at one point.  He looked great in the fight up until that head kick.  Now to find out that Jones had taken a performance enhancing drug. All I can say is Fuck Jon Jones.  I always try to give people the benefit of the doubt.  I try to put myself in their shoes and hope that people would forgive me if I would have made similar mistakes and hope that people don’t pre-judge me before all of the facts come out.  In aftermath of UFC 200 I had given Jon Jones the benefit of the doubt that he had changed, learned from his mistakes and had humbled himself.  So, Fuck Jon Jones for making me give him the benefit of the doubt.  I can’t imagine what it was like for DC to pour his heart and soul into the fight, to be on TV just concussed and trying to keep it together in front of Joe Rogan. So Fuck Jon Jones for making the true champ look like a loser on PPV.  I’ve had Jon Jones as the P4P best fighter on the roster over Demetrius Johnson because Jones had brought stability to LHW division, after Chuck Liddell’s reign ended the title went through a revolving door of champions. Jones beat multiple former world champions to hold that title.  I put DJ as #2 because I felt that DJ’s dominance was due to a lack of competition based on his opponent’s pedigrees.  Fuck Jon Jones for making me list DJ as the #2 P4P fighter.  DJ is now #1 in my book.  Also, Fuck Jon Jones for ruining the news cycle before the Mayweather McGregor fight.  Instead of talking about the biggest fight in combat sports history, now we have to hear about how this fuck up, fucked up again.  For me Jon, that’s your third strike.  I wish you well in life, I hope you find peace in this world but I never want to see you compete in MMA again.  Fuck Jon Jones.     

Johny Hendricks pisses in Sean Shelby's Cheerios, set to face Paulo Borrachinha

Johny Hendricks has been struggling after the loss of his welterweight belt. He has lost 4 out of his last 5 fights.  He has missed weight on multiple occasions and he missed weight most recently against Tim Boetsch at UFC Fight Night 112 Chiesa vs Lee, even after moving up to the middleweight division. It has been reported that after this loss, Johny Hendricks, called Dana White which he couldn't reach.  At this point he left a message telling Dana to go "Fuck Himself" then making a loud honking noise saying "This is Big Rig".  Then according to sources Johny Hendricks then sneaked into match makers Sean Shelby's house early in the morning.  He then began to urinate in the match maker's bowl of cereal.  Now it has been announced that Johny Hendricks would be facing Paulo Borrachinha.  Paulo is undefeated at 10-0 with 9 KO's and 1 Submission.

Johny Hendricks was asked by MMA Rants and Odds Cracker about the fight

MMA Odds Cracker: Johnny what do you think about your next fight.

Hendricks Who am I fighting?

MMA Odds Cracker: Paulo Borrachinha

Hendricks: Fuck!

*The details and interview of this article have been dramatized for comedic affect

UFC 213: Nunes vs Shevchenko - Picks and DraftKings Card

UFC 213: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2

Amanda Nunes vs. Valentina Shevchenko
Shevhenko 2nd Sub

Yoel Romero vs. Robert Whittaker

Romero 3rd KO
Fabricio Werdum vs. Alistair Overeem
Werdum 2nd Sub
Anthony Pettis vs. Jim Miller
Pettis Dec

Travis Browne vs. Oleksiy Oliynyk

Olynyk Sub 2nd
Chad Laprise vs. Brian Camozzi
Laprise Dec

Daniel Omielańczuk vs. Curtis Blaydes

Blaydes Dec
Jordan Mein vs. Belal Muhammad

Mein 2nd KO
Rob Font vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade

Andrade Dec
Thiago Santos vs. Gerald Meerschaert

Meerschaert 2nd Sub

Cody Stamann vs. Terrion Ware

Stamann Dec

Trevin Giles vs. James Bochnovic

Bochhnovic 1st Sub

My DraftKings Picks

Chad Laprise (-600) vs.(+450) Brian Camozzi

Wow look at those odds, ok we get it betting line, Chad is going to win. Will he get the finish. Probably. I can easily see Chad Laprise playing it safe and not push for the finish. Chad will be able defends Camozzi's takedown and will be the superior striker.

Thiago Santos (-145) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (+125)

Thiago will have the striking advantage in this fight. Power advantage, Yes that goes to Santos not arguing that point. However Santos has a serious weakness on the ground. I'm picking Meerscheart because he finishes fights and i like his chances of pulling off a submission. If you have to pick an underdog pick the underdog that has a clear advantage in one area and finishes.

Yoel Romero (-105) vs. Robert Whittaker (-115)


I don't get the betting line on this fight.  I don't get why Yoel was even at +120 at one point.  I don't even think this is a Pick'em fight.  He has been an underdog in all of his fights in the UFC.  Is it because he is 39 years old.  If 39 years old means you are built like a Ninja Turtle than i can't wait to turn 39.  So the MMA experts are giving Whittaker the striking advantage. Yes to enable that advantage you a fighter has to be standing.  Yoel is Olympic Silver medalist in wrestling.  He can take his opponents down at will but he doesn't because he doesn't need to.  Yoel lulls his opponents to sleep with his slow rhythmic style.  At that point where you think you have his timing. Bam he explodes and your own the canvas.  This fight isn't a pick'em and its a most pick for your Draftkings Card.  

Amanda Nunes (-110) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (-110)

I don't think people know how undersized Valetina is for the weight division. She should be fighting at 125, she doesn't cut any weight for this division. My point in this is is she can hang in here because she is an excellent striker and after watching her fight against Julianna Pena she is pure mixed martial artists. I was so impressed with her ability to take down Pena who was the superior grappler. She ended up submitting her which was even more surprising. Amanda Nunes is the champion and she won their first fight but both these fighters are different fighters from when they first fought. I gotta pick Shevchenko because in their first fight Shevchenko was able to outlast Nunes in the 3rd round and really put it on her. Nunes will be the bigger puncher in this fight and she does have KO power but Shevchenko's ability to gauge distance will help with evading her power. I just think Shevchenko is the superior fighter with a better gas tank. Shevnenko is another most pick for your Draftkings card. She signed up for 5 round fight so given the chance she can rack up a lot of points if she doesn't get the finish. But I don't see this fight going the distance.


Cody Stamann (-260) vs. Terrion Ware (+220)

So the first two fights on this card were added last week. So I'm picking the guy with the better record. That's the breakdown.

 Fabricio Werdum (+105) vs. Alistair Overeem (-125)


I get the odds on this one. Allistair Overeem won the last fight between these two fighters.
there was a lot of butt scouting with Fabricio not wanting to engage much in the striking but that's
not the case anymore. Fabricio stands with everyone now. Also Allistair Overeem doesn't have
a chin anymore. So with Fabricio being comptent striker and having the obvious ground game
advantage I gotta go with Fabricio. Since the striker will spend the majority of the fight
running around looking for angles because he can't take a punch anymore

The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale Picks and Draft Kings Card.

The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale

Michael Johnson vs. Justin Gaethje

Johnson Dec

Dhiego Lima vs. Jesse Taylor

Lima 2nd Sub

Marc Diakiese vs. Drakkar Klose

Diakiese 1st KO

Jared Cannonier vs. Nick Roehrick

Cannoier 1st KO

Brad Tavares vs. Elias Theodorou

Brad Tavares Split Dec

Jordan Johnson vs. Marcel Fortuna

Fortuna Sub 2nd

Angela Hill vs. Ashley Yoder

Hill 1st KO

James Krause vs. Tom Gallicchio

Krause 2nd Sub

Ed Herman vs. C.B. Dollaway

Dollaway Dec

Jessica Eye vs. Aspen Ladd

Ladd Dec

Gray Maynard vs. Teruto Ishihara

Maynard Dec

Tecia Torres vs. Juliana Lima

Torres Dec

My DraftKings Picks:

*This is going to brief breakdown for this card .  I'm saving my more detail breakdown for UFC 213.

Jared Cannonier (-265) vs Nick Roehrick (+245)

Jared opponent is making his debut on a weeks notice.  The UFC gave Jared a tough opponent in Glover Teixeria in his 2nd fight at Light Heavyweight.  He didn't get finished so taking on a nobody on a weeks notice should be an easier fight than his original opponent. 

Marc Diakiese (-255) vs. Drakkar Klose (+235)

Marc is just a freak athlete.  He has a tendency to rely on his athletic ability rather than technique. He is just to strong and explosive and Drakkar Klose doesn't posses the technique to get past him.

Jordan Johnson (-225) vs. Marcel Fortuna (+225)



Going against the odds makers on this one. I'm picking Fortuna just based off his jiu jitsu credentials. Also because he took his UFC debut against a Heavyweight and knocked him out in the first round. So he is now fighting in his proper weight class of LHW. He is fighting an undefeated fighter but I think Fortuna training with Daniel Comier will help with Fortuna to utilize his BJJ game to get the fight to where he wants it.

Angela Hill(-340) vs. Ashley Yoder(+310)


Hill is the superior athlete and as long as her takedown defense holds up. I don't see Yoder coming close to victory.   

Jessica Eye (+105) vs. Aspen Ladd (-125)

I'm picking Ladd just out of my sheer disappointment in Eye. Ladd will land enough takedowns to get the victory. I'm betting that Eye still hasn't learned to stuff them so I'm picking Ladd.

Dhiego Lima (+150) vs. Jesse Taylor (-170)

The line has been shrinking on this fight. Vegas has this one wrong and Its shrinking for good reason. Jesse Taylor is one note. He isn't a devastating striker. He is a straight wrestler with GnP. If Dhiego can't sprawl and brawl. He will end up submitting Jesse Taylor. Dhiego is going to make Jesse pay for each takedown.