The Money Bet #6

I’ve been watching this Showtime Documentary Action it follows the professional and amateur sports gamblers leading up to the biggest day in sports betting, the Super Bowl.   It’s a four part series and I highly encourage all sports fans to watch it.  Despite the fact that, I am a huge fan of sports betting I wouldn’t ever want to be a professional gambler because that kind of level of risk is just way to much for me.  If I was that kind of risk taker I would left the federal government for the private sector or I would have taken a job overseas in Iraq or Afghanistan for the hazard pay.  I’m not that kind of dude, If would liken myself to anyone it would be the sole woman on the show, Kelly Stewart, who isn’t a professional gambler but a sports handicapper.  I’d rather become a talking head going over stats, betting lines and predications.  Given that I’m truly a hobbyist I have to aggregate my own data.  FightMetric want’s $15,000 dollars for their data sets and that money would be better spent on a patio for the backyard or repairs to our sun room.  If I had the time I would like to get the stats on fighters making their Octagon debut and as a betting favorite.  

Ivan Shtyrkov (-175)                                                                                       Devin Clark (+155)

          15-0-1                                                                                                                  9-3

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

The quality of an opponent is really the gauge of were an MMA fighter is at skill wise and not knowing those fighters the MMA promotion is also indicative.  I bring that up because I’m picking against a 15-0-1 fighter who looks so jacked I’m surprised USADA hasn’t cancelled this fight yet.  He is a Russian who has fought primarily under Russian Cage Fighting Championship promotion.  In terms of Russian MMA promotions the top tier would be M-1 Global, Fight Nights Global and then ACA.  Russian Cage Fighting Championship is your local promotion that doesn’t have a TV deal.  I would compare them to Titan FC and that’s generous.  Though this guy might look impressive those muscles aren’t really suited for fighting.   I’m watching his fight were he got his first blemish of a draw and he has some serious cardio issues that he has to fix.  Granted the man is very explosive in the opening rounds but he has a tendency to gas.  His wrestling is suspect as well.  I’m picking his opponent Devin Clark he is a collegiate wrestler and though he doesn’t have the upper body muscles that Ivan has Devin Clark probably has thickest thighs in the Light Heavyweight division.  I think Clark is going to be able to put Ivan against the cage and wear him out for a finish in rounds 2 and 3. 

I’m placing a $30 bet on this one at +155 were I could win $46.50 giving me a total bankroll of $134

The Money Bet #5

The Money Bet #5

This post I’m going to be breaking down two fights.  I’ve selected Marlon Vera/Frankie Saenz and Jordan Espinosa/Eric Shelton.  I’m doing things a little bit different as I decided to pick a slight favorite this time.  Mainly because I’m picking a considerable underdog this time with Jordan Espinosa who is making his Octagon debut. Though I’m making “fun” bets I need to hedge those bets.  So yeah, making your octagon debut is something I like to avoid.  “Octagon Jitters” are a real thing but really there are some guys out there padding their records.  So I like to go on Sherdog and start scrolling through the records of their opponents.  A lot of the time those 10-0, 13-1 type fighters are fighting guys who are 5-7 and 8-12. 

Jordan Espinosa isn’t really unfamiliar with the Octagon as he has two fights at the former TUF gym for Dana’s Tuesday Night Contender Series.  In both cases he was very dominate, in Season 1 he scored a first round anaconda choke in the opening minutes and in the second fight he was able to secure a 3^rd round TKO in last few seconds. So for those of you who are not familiar with the DWTCS is basically a shot for all those regional prospects to impress Dana White to get a UFC contract.  So it’s not even about winning, its about winning in spectacular fashion.  The finishing rate is like 88.8% which is INSANE!!.  I believe this environment creates unique set of circumstances that don’t allow for true judge of a fighter’s ability.   Since The Money Bet is supposed to be all about the numbers I went back through all of Season 2 and the Brazil season to see how many fighters won their debut after they got the call to fight.

Results
Won Debut	17
Lost Debut	16
Total	33

*Note – I did not include Marina Rodquez Draw or Greg Hardy’s DQ Loss

The Probability and the odds are pretty much even.  Though I will say this if I were to go back and do the numbers over again and separate the fighters who had a short notice fight for their debut and look at if they won there second fight I think you’ll see a higher win ratio but I’ll have to dive into those numbers at a later time.  Also I have to create a baseline of UFC debut fighters who aren’t coming off TUF or the DWTCS.  I’m going to guess it’s the same but I’ll take closer look at those numbers later as well. 

Jordan Espinosa (+130)                                                           Eric Shelton (+150)

FightMetric does have stats for Espinosa which I really haven’t seen when I’m looking up fighters who have fought on DWCTS but apparently they are posting those stats now.   I’m not going to do a comparative analysis just due to the caliber of fighters I’ve seen Eric Shelton face the comparison is not justifiable.  I’m picking Jordan because he uses a lot of movement to setup his shots. He is fast and explosive but the only negative take a ways I saw was that since he is very movement based and explosive he get’s tired towards the later rounds. 

I’m putting $5 on him at +130 yes just $5, so when I first looked at the line it was at +170/-210 at the value I would laid down more but not at those odds I currently have.  I haven’t really talked about line movement in this blog. For those of you who don’t know, the earlier you put a bet down the better. Bookies establish the betting lines and they can change from underdog or favorite as the action comes in.  Once you place your bet, you are locked into those odds.  As the action comes in the bookies adjust the betting lines.  Even though I’m doing “fun” bets I’m not considering my bet placed until I put pen to paper and write up my post.  I had originally decided to do my post on Moffett/Mitchel but I got mixed up and thought that Moffett was the underdog.  I scraped that post.  Yeah, I’m not that confident about this pick.  That’s why I’m only betting $5

Marlon Vera (-150)                                                                                             Frankie Saenz (+130)

                                                                                                                                                                                   

                                                                                                                                                                       

From statistical analysis, Marlon Vera has more Knockdowns in his fights compared to Frankie.  He also has a better ground game and he is dangerous off his back if Frankie wants to take it to the ground.  I’m picking against Frankie mainly because I think he is whining down his career.  Saenz is 38 going on 39, his two fight win streak isn’t much of win streak because his Mehab fight was a highway robbery and his last fight was against  Henry Brinoes who finished his UFC career 1-4 and was mainly booked in fights because he blocked the majority of the punches that came towards him with his face and threw nothing but haymakers.  I’m putting down $20 on this so at +150 I would win $13.33. 

Those are the picks prelims start at 5pm on ESPN+ Main Card start at 8pm on ESPN+  The Shelton/Espinsoa is the first fight on the card so I will mostly likely being ignoring my friends at a BBQ around that time. 

Sunday Morning Analyst #4

Happy St Patrick's Day

Gotta love my little girl.  My wife made best Shepard's Pie EVER. Its been a good day.

So I'm loving the pacing of these ESPN+ cards, especially the European ones because they start so earlier you still have the rest of the day to do stuff. Great Main Event,  Till dropped Masvidal off the bat I think it was the first punch.  I thought the fight was almost over in the opening seconds.  Jorge was able to clear the cobwebs and get back to his feet.  In the second round Masvidal was able to land a nice three piece combo to shock the 02 Arena.  Great Fight.  I didn't see the interviews after the fight, I went to a game night to show off my cutie.  But Jorge Masvidal is a 100% about that life.  DON'T TALK SHIT TO HIM!!!!!!

If you missed the fight and the after fight check it out here.    

The rest of the card was entertaining, there were a bunch of cracked orbital bones.  Next Wonderboy  vs Showtime is the 23rd.  I've been looking at the card.  I will have a Money Bet completed this week.  So, Stay Tuned.  Below are the lines for Saturday:

Monday Morning Analyst

I picked another loser again.   I picked Lewis.  Didn't finish my breakdown of the fight but in sum I thought the fight would end with Dos Santos coming in for the kill and Lewis coming in for the kill.  That sequence did happen after the body shot and Lewis doubled over in pain vis-à-vis. Scott Smith vs Pete Sell.  If you haven't seen that fight I posting the you tube clip below.

That didn't happen. Dos Santos was able to hurt Lewis and not get caught coming in.  So I lost again my bankroll is now at $68.  Another learning lesson.  Let's stick with got us to the dance in the first place by statistical analysis of fight data and matchup outcomes.

The Money Bet #4

The Money Bet #4

Junior Dos Santos (+180)    Derrick Lewis (-220)

             20-5                                       21-6

I don't get, I don't think these bookies watch these fights.   I guess because Dos Santos is coming off two fight win streak and Lewis lost his last fight.  Yeah, of course Derrick Lewis lost his 3 week notice fight against Daniel Cormier.   Or maybe its the stats Dos Santos is going to be the fighter with the higher output.  He's going to be dancing around on the outside basically pot shoting the entire time.  So, Derrick Lewis doesn't have the best cardio or the best ground game.  What I learned from that Volkov fight that my friend, Kim Tran pointed out that Derrick Lewis won't go away until you put him away.  

If you re-watch the Tai fight Dos Santos caught Tai going in for the kill.  I don't fault him for this he is a very wrong fighter.  However, if you watch the fight Tai was landed the harder shots. Even though Dos santos got the finish in

Monday Morning Analyst #3

 Monday Morning Analyst #3

No one is going to be believe and I didn't right it down but I knew that was going to be the only way Misha was going to loose.  I literally said to wife and mother-in-law before he landed the knee that the only way Walker could win as if he could time that flying knee.  Well he did it.  I'm not even pissed off that I lost the bet but I do so many re-writes of these posts that at some point I had a sentence watch  out for flying knees but I decided to change that out for some reason.  We make mistakes we learn from them and that's really what this blog is about.  So let's take a look at my bank roll now.  Well I had $137.50 - $40 = $98 is my new bankroll.

Other upsets that we have to talk about Diego Sanchez vs Mickey Gall.  Mickey Gall came in so fast and strong he basically blow his wad in the first round.  I knew he has been working on his striking with Joe Schilling and wanted to take his new toys for a test drive and just red lined his engine.  I think this quote sums up that fight.

Diego just weathered the storm found the opportunity for a take down and made Gall work to get up back to his feet. Draining Gall to point that getting the finish was easy work for Diego who hadn't finished an opponent in 11 years.

Usman vs Woodley I was really shocked by the outcome of this fight. I wasn't shocked that Usman could do that.  I was shocked that Woodley let him.  I think it was the 4th round were Woodley's corner man Din Thomas,  just light a spark in his ass.  My wife and I were wondering if Tyron was going to do something other than back up against the cage and get beat up. Nope, his strategy did not waiver.

So an old coworker was texting me about my thoughts on the fight.  My thoughts on this fight were Tyron did the same thing he did with Rory MacDonald and a lesser extent what he did in the Gastelum fight, he let the other fighter dictate the fight to the point where Tyron is no longer looking for counters but defending offense.  When you are thinking about past performances its hard because fighters improve and you can chalk it up to a bad day in the office but you also have to evaluate the attributes of those opponents who have given him a bad day.  Its been guys who can mix it up.  I think we all got blinded by the Darren Till performance because that was an amazing performance where he just shutdown Till.  The striking metrics were 74 strikes for Woodley to Till's single strike landed.  Its easy to concentrate on that one hitter quitter when you don't have to worry about someone taking you down.  So when he's facing Robbie Lawler or Darren Till he knows their not feinting a takedown its probably the right that's coming.  Counter!

I've already decided what fight I'm going to breakdown its going to be the headliner Lewis vs Dos Santos.  I don't understand this betting line at all I don't think these bookies watch fights.  Please stay tuned for Money Bet #4.  

The Money Bet #3

The Money Bet

I did not breakdown the last card because I couldn’t find a pick that was worthy.   I’m not really just trying to put content out for content sake. I’ve actually stopped trying to get hits on this blog by reposting my blog link on MMA Fan pages.  Being accurate in my predictions is what I’m really trying to achieve. Even though, these are “fun” bets, I’m treating this blog likes it’s my actual money being put down.  I’m basically trying to prove that my methodology of research and analysis is viable approach to betting.  I’m a huge fan of this sport but I’ve found that writing out my analysis is the only way to shed any bias that I have as a fan.

Johnny Walker (-130)                    Misha Cirkunov (+110)

               16-3                                                     14-4

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          

Predictive measures of a fighters winning are based on three areas Knockdowns, Strike output and takedowns. My pick for this fight is Misha Cirkunov.

Grappling	Misha Cirkunov	Johnny Walker
Takedowns Average/15 min.	4.53	0.87
Takedown Accuracy	58%	100%
Takedown Defense	71%	100%
Submission Average/15 min.	2.3	2.6

So lets talk about his takedown defense yes it’s a 100% but that is because he has fought two strikers who haven’t gone for takedowns. You miss a 100% of the shots you don’t take.  (It transcends sports)  His takedown defense is very suspect. So, FightMetric keeps stats for all of the UFC fights but apparently they don’t keep stats for Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender’s Series.  Johnny Walker was on the Brazilian version of this show which you can currently watch on FightPass. He won a clear, dominant decision against Hernique Da Silva.  What I learned from this fight is Walker gasses easily, needs to work on his top control and his takedown defense needs some work.  That 100% is about to drop because Hernique Da Silva was able to land multiple takedowns and that’s coming from a striker with the following UFC stats:

• TD Avg.: 0.25
• TD Acc.: 14%
• TD Def.: 22%
• Sub. Avg.: 0.2

These aren’t the stats of a fighter with D1 or Olympic pedigree So I believe the judo player with BJJ black belt has the ability to pull away with the win.  

Three Keys to Victory

·       Setup the takedowns – He can’t shoot in their naked, he risks getting countered

·       Stay out of the Clinch – Walker has nasty knees and elbows

·       Take him into deep water – Drag Walker down and wear him out, he has a lot of first round KOs.

So we are at $137.50 for my bankroll at the moment I’m going to take my “winnings” from the last bet and put it on this one.  I’m actually really confident about this one so let’s just make it a round number and bet $40 on this fight.  $40 at +110 is $44 for a total of $181.50 if Misha comes away with the win .  My prediction Cirkunov 1st RD decision.