The Money Bet #9

This whole card is pretty good.  It’s actually pretty stacked.  We’ve got two title fights and the fight I’m super pumped is Ferguson vs Cerrone.  It is the People’s Main Event and no that was not coined by Ariel.  Its going to be a good night of fights.  This Money Bet is going to be on the curtain jerker. 

Joanne Calderwood (-105)                             Katlyn Chookagian (-105)

            13-3                                                                 12-2

So I’ve been extremely hesitant about making picks on the last couple of cards since Rose lost.  I’m about to make a make a pick based on my fandom but I have the stats to back up the pick.

	Katlyn Chookgian	Joanne Calderwood
Striking
Strikes Landed per Min. (SLpM)	4.08	5.86
Striking Accuracy	31%	50%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. (SApM)	4.21	4.14
Defense	63%	49%
Grappling
Takedowns Average/15 min.	0.00	1.61
Takedown Accuracy	0%	52%
Takedown Defense	63%	53%
Submission Average/15 min.	0.2	0.7

Bias Disclosure.  So strikes landed is strong predictive indicator so that’s why I’m picking JoJo.  Another reason is her 31% accuracy of Chookgian.  This is mostly because she dances around trying to point fight.  She throws pillow punches and kicks so she hasn’t finished a ingle fight in the UFC.  She has similar style to Holly Holm but she has less power, no setups and more evasive.  Honestly I can’t stand her fighting style.  I feel like her ground is so bad that she avoids any kind of engagement.  I can’t wait till she gets cut. JoJo is going to get her to the ground and GnP if she doesn’t knock her out on the feet.  I’ve got 27 left in my bank roll.  I’m putting down my last $20 on JoJo which would result in a payout of $19.05.

The Misfit - Jessica Eye

So I just read Jessica's article on The Player's Tribune The Misfit. I never read the Player's Tribune before but if you haven't its essentially short stories or articles by athletes.  I enjoyed the article its not a long read so I suggest reading it.  I will tell you this it definitely made me more of a Jessica Eye fan.  I'm glad the UFC finally made the 125 division.  She was definitely to small for 135 and shown that this is her weightclass.  Jessica Eye first caught my eye in her second fight in Bellator she was fighting Zola Gurgel.  This fight stood out to me because of how it ended.  Jessica had locked in a standing arm triangle which i've seen locked in before but never finished while standing.  I was very excited and was in total arm chair coach mode. At the time, I was adamant that she wouldn't be able to finish the submission and she should just not waste the energy trying to lock it in and just use the choke to take her to the ground. Boy was I wrong, she locked that standing arm triangle and that was the first time I've seen that submission locked in while standing.  I don't think people understand its very hard to cut the angle while standing to lock it in you hat use a lot of muscle because you can't angle out like you could on the ground.  It was very impressive. I watch a lot of fights and never seen that before, so I was excited to see her in the UFC and even after a four fight losing streak she is still here and now fighting for the title.  This Saturday Jessica Eye faces Valentina Shevshenko.




Yes! Those are odds are crazy high, Jessica Eye is the biggest underdog on the card.  Though I enjoyed the article and will be rooting for Jessica.  I will not be betting on Jessica Eye.  The Rocky Story was last week with Andy Ruiz its not happening again that soon but you never know its the fight game.

Sports Betting Update: When and Where

Based on reports from the Washington City Paper, you will not see mobile sports betting until January 2020.  However, DC will be issuing Class A sports licensing around September which have been designated at the major stadiums Nats, Capital One Arena, etc... At that time Class B licenses which can be setup up by individuals.  I'm guessing the Class B licenses will partner with sports bars who aren't 2 blocks away from the major sports arenas.   The converted Green Turtle space in Gallery Place is going to be packed in September.  Its proximity to the metro and its nullification of competition from nearby bars will make it a prime location for sports betting. I'm curious to see what the Entertainment and Sports Arena does.  It is home to the Mystics and NBA Development team those aren't major draws compared to NBA, NHL, and MLB so I'm curious what they will do with the space now that they can make revenue off of concessions and wagering.  I haven't visited the arena yet I did have tickets to the PFL but it was the same day as the baby shower so I just had to pass on it.  Looking forwarded to seeing how all of this plays out. 

See the below link for the full article.  More updates will follow.

https://www.washingtoncitypaper.com/sports/article/21068480/dc-committee-on-finance-and-revenue-concerned-with-additional-delay-of-public-sports-betting-app

Monday Morning Quarterback

I didn’t see that coming and If you saw the slam coming you are lying or you should be my new consultant once sports betting is a go in DC.  Seeing the rumblings I think people who are in the “know” of the sport figured that Rose was going to win.  You can see as the fight progressed.  Rose had the superior stand up skills, her footwork was on point and there was no way Rose was going to get caught with any looping shots.  Rose starting locking in a kimura to counter the first slam attempt and was able to get out of the situation but the second time she held on to long when being elevated and Jessica Andrade just slammed her on her neck.   That was it.  I’ve seen Andrade rag doll Claudia Gadelha at least three times in their fight but it was nothing like that slam at UFC 237.  This is why I love this sport, you never know what’s going to happen you can be winning bell to bell until you get caught and that’s what happened.  I would like to say this Rose was only 2-2 and when she fought for the title the first time at the end of the Ultimate Fighter Finale.  She is now only 8-4 this isn’t the career progression that the majority of the champions go through. They have a lot more experience. 

This is a learning experience for Rose. When she comes back she will be a better fight.  Ever time she experiences a loss she comes back a stronger fighter. 

Jesus Christ boy am I making a case to my wife that I should be allowed cart blanche in sports betting because I know how to pick them.  My bankroll is $37.  Freak Slam KO suck rocks fight gods. 

Anderson Silva stop BJ Penn please stop.  Its fucking sad I can’t watch these guys fight anymore.  Anderson Silva OMG no one wants to see their Idol’s getting seriously injured.  Your 44 years old go to Bellator or China   Why can’t we get BJ Penn in a grappling tournament how about combat Jiu-Jitsu.  Dana White stop booking these guys release them.  You can’t be a party to this stuff anymore.  Its fucking sad. STOP. Please STOP!!!!

I will post the odds for UFC Fight Night; Dos Anjos vs Lee later on when I'm not at work.  

Happy Anniversary Vicki Love Yo

The Money Bet #8

So, I preface this weeks pick that. Yes I let my fandom interfere with my pick. If I own a guy’s T-shirt and wore it during his fights I probably should understand that I have bias.  Also, another note about that fight whoever was the judge that gave Cub Swanson 30-27 needs to be brought out to the middle of the street and shot. There is now way he won all three rounds. What fight were you watching.  Stop judging please.  Ok to my point.  I’m a huge Thug Rose fan but I’m also a huge Jessica Andrade fan.  Me and my friend Horty went to the fights in San Diego for the UFC Fight Night: Frank Mir vs Todd Duffee.  I sat right next to where the fighters walk out 23 fighters passed me by, only one fighter gave me a high five< Jessica Andrade.  She went out of her way to give me a high five.

On top of that I got married to my beautiful wife Victoria on May 13, 2017, where Andrade fought Joanna Jedrejczjk I put $20 bucks on Andrade to win at the sportsbook of the MGM Grand. Once again I am a fan of this woman. I love her fighting style.  She is ferocious.  She has only two punches; left haymaker and right haymaker which totally KO’ed Karolina Kowalkiewic for the first time in her career.  The way she just buzzed saw through Claudia Gadelha exhibiting some of the most devastating ground n’ pound I have ever seen in the women’s division.  I am a huge fan of both of these ladies. 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           

Jessica Andrade (-120)                                                           Rose Namajunas (+100)

            (19-6)                                                                                      (8-3)

I’m picking THUG ROSE!! THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE LETS GO!!!! THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE Mother Fucking THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE LETS GO!!!!!  THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE

She is a complete fighter, she has hands, a ground game and foot work that will pick her apart.  I can’t believe the betting odds in this fight.  Precision beats power and timing beats speed.  Thug Rose all day!!! I’m about to empty my bankroll on this one.  I’m putting $40 dollars out of my $67

Tuesday Morning Quarterback

Ok, Yeah, so I my fandom let me think that Cub Swanson was going to be able to come up with better strategy for dealing with Shane Burgos.  Burgos was really effective with pumping his jab and his reach really was a problem for Cub Swanson.  I own a Cub Swanson T-shirt so that probably had me ignore his three fight win streak.  Should have stayed away from this pick and should have made another.  My Bank Roll is down to $67 now.   I have a habit of picking slight underdogs but I’m going to start picking slight favorites.   Not this week though. 

The Money Bet #7

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Cub Swanson (+140)                      Shane Burgos (-160)

                  (25-10)                                    (11-1)

So, this is going to be Fight of the Night.  This is going to be a highly entertaining bout.  I like both of these fighters.  I’m picking Cub though.  Shane Burgos has a very fan favorite style of fighting.  He likes to keep his hands down and use his long reach t to throw punches off different angles.  He also likes to use head movement a lot and sheer toughness as defense.  In other words, he gets hit a lot.

STRIKING (SIGNIFICANT STRIKES)	Cub Swanson	Shane Burgos
Strikes Landed per Min. (SLpM)	4.16	6.54
Striking Accuracy	49%	46%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. (SApM)	3.28	5.47
Defense	62%	66%

The sheer number of fights Cub has had in the UFC is inflating his numbers and Shane has only had 5 fights in the UFC compared to Cub’s 16.

Shane has shown the ability to knock off new comers but has yet to show that he can level up to fight the top 10 and that’s where Cub is.  Given the fact Cub is on a 3 fight losing streak I’m surprised that he isn’t more of dog.  If you counting wins and losses and you aren’t watching the fights I think you made a bad decision.  I’m going with Cub I’m putting $20 dollars on him making my winnings $28.00 and my bankroll total $107.