UFC 246 Results

That was a horrible showing for Cowboy.  Like I expected, Cowboy couldn’t get started quick enough.  He couldn’t get out of the first round. Yay Cowboy didn’t show up. It was a bad showing, 40 seconds, 0 strikes landed, got jarred by shoulder strikes. Not his best performance.

So, if there was an underdog pick to throw $5 dollars it should have Roxanne “Motherfucking: Modafferi.  Wow, what a performance.  Was beating her up on the feet.  Yes, Macyee did clearly hurt her leg in the second round. But with Maycee being -1000 favorite I could have made some money. 

I think I betted appropriately for Cowboy fight but one stat i do want to put out is that Roxanne would be on a 4 fight when streak if her opponents had to forfeit for missing weight.  She seems to be finally fitting into this weight class when her opponents don’t have to struggle to cut those extra pounds. 

The fight I do have issue with my betting strategy has to be the Carlos Diego Ferrira fight.  If I’m confident in the fight I need to bet more if they are the favorite. Then there was the Fili fight.  It was close. I thought Fili would be able to pop back up after being takedown but Sodiq had good top control.  I knew Sodiq was a Llyod Irvin guy and so has to have a good ground game but his top control in the 2nd definitely took the round.  Fili had his moments, but I think Sodiq is one to watch. 

Where are we at with my totals Fili $10 + Cerrone $5 I’m down $15 but wait…..  I did win at -255 so I get a cool winnings of $5.88. Leaving bank roll at $240.88. I lost 9.12

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. dos Santos

And 

Bellator 238: Budd Vs. Cyborg

I feel like I wasn’t aggressive so I’m going to change my strategy some.  Also as a first I’m going to talking about a Bellator fight.

(+295) Julia Budd vs (-556) Cristane Justino

I’m picking Budd guys. Yeah I think Cyborg has made a career of beating up inexperienced or undersized women.  Budd is not small and has been in the sport awhile and has fought a lot of named opponents.  I’ve got $30 on Budd.

(-150)  Sara McMann vs (+140) Lina Lansberg

My next pick is Sara McMann the crazy thing about this fight is she is still the favorite after coming off two loses and time off from having her baby. Lina Lansburg is coming in with a two fight win streak especially her last win against Macey Chiasson promising Ultimate Fighter Winner Season 28.  McMann opened up at +120 and that has swiftly changed. The sharp money is on McMann because McMann has been dominate in those two loses before getting caught in submissions while being on top.  McMann being the Olympic Silver Medalist in wrestling counters all of Lina’s strengths in grappling. Lina Lansberg is World Champion in Muay Thai. McMann has never been stopped from strikes other than that knee she caught from Ronda. I’m confident she can close the distance without getting caught coming in. The most important aspect is that McMann doesn’t have to worry about being caught in a submission since Lina strengths are clinching and striking she has 0 submission wins.  I’m putting down $40 on McMann

UFC 246

It's been awhile since i’ve posted. Most of the sports betting news I chosen to share via Facebook.  Mainly because the developments are just stories from the Post or a local news reporter and not my own writing.  If you haven’t been following DC enacted emergency legislation in order to get a jump on sports betting ahead of the other nearby states.  Also it could take advantage of the revenue from the fall sports such as MLB Playoffs, NBA, NHL NFL, the  never-ending season of MMA or even boring ass soccer.  The whole thing has been riddled with issues.  Rather than read my 8th grade description of what happened, please read this nice Washington Post article.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/dc-politics/dc-sports-betting-app-to-go-live-in-march-capital-one-arena-seeks-sportsbook/2020/01/10/c30d7eaa-33e6-11ea-a053-dc6d944ba776_story.html

In my previous Money Bets, I have focused on one fight.  My thought pattern has changed on this approach.  I joined a football spread pool and I did horribly.  It led me to seek out experts who were also bad a picking winners but during the course of my discovery. I did get some insights in the game of sports betting.  One, don’t throw all your eggs into one basket.  Often I would do a research for one fight and somehow the MMA gods would pull that fight for me, leaving me scrambling to find a new pick.  What I learned was to pick a couple of fights and spread your bets around changing your wagers depending on your confidence level. I’ve got about 7 UFC events before this thing goes live so let’s see how this new system works.  I’m giving myself a $250 bankroll. 

UFC 246

Welterweight	Conor McGregor	vs.	Donald Cerrone
Women's Bantamweight	Holly Holm	vs.	Raquel Pennington
Heavyweight	Aleksei Oleinik	vs.	Maurice Greene
Women's Strawweight	Cláudia Gadelha	vs.	Alexa Grasso
Lightweight	Anthony Pettis	vs.	Carlos Diego Ferreira
Women's Flyweight	Roxanne Modafferi	vs.	Maycee Barber
Featherweight	Andre Fili	vs.	Sodiq Yusuff
Lightweight	Drew Dober	vs.	Nasrat Haqparast
Featherweight	Chas Skelly	vs.	Grant Dawson
Light Heavyweight	Aleksa Camur	vs.	Justin Ledet
Flyweight	Tim Elliott	vs.	Askar Askarov
Bantamweight	Brian Kelleher	vs.	Ode Osbourne
Women's Flyweight	Sabina Mazo	vs.	JJ Aldrich

(-300) Conor McGregor vs (+250) Donald Cerrone

I’ve been mulling this fight over and over again.  Trying to justify a bet against Conor.  I feel the line should be closer but this is the thing about Cowboy.  He doesn’t show up for these fights.  He’s been given this for a #1 contender slot so many times.  This is the biggest stage yet.  This is the biggest payday of his career and even despite his title shot lost against Dos Anjos this is the biggest fight of his career.  I think Cowboy is a live dog in this fight ONLY if he can get pass the first round.  Once it gets pass round one, the fight is all Cowboy.  So I’m putting $5 on Cowboy

(+215) Anthony Pettis vs (-255) Carlos Diego Ferrera

Here is the thing I think Pettis messed himself up going down to 145lbs. I don’t think he can get in there with a strong guy who is going to just walk him down and beat on him.  Pettis has been making an excuse or getting hurt in these fights trying to  find a way out.  I hope the god you don’t follow me on twitter but if you do I’ve been banging the drum about fixing Mairbek Tismumov’s Visa issues so he can fight in the US.  I was amazed when Feirrera just walk that guy down and beat him up for the three downs. Tismumov did catch Ferrera but he was able to come back and keep up the pressure. The guy has chin on him.  I’ve got $15 on Ferrera

(+115) Andre Fili vs (-130) Sodiq Yusuff

First off the last thing I want to do is bet against a Nigerian from the DMV.  He has looked good, he is athletic but I think the betting lines should be somewhere around even or with Fili having the slight edge.  It really comes down to experience. Fili looked real good in his last fight and it looks if he has finally put it all together.  I’ve got $10 on Fili

The Money Bet #9

This whole card is pretty good.  It’s actually pretty stacked.  We’ve got two title fights and the fight I’m super pumped is Ferguson vs Cerrone.  It is the People’s Main Event and no that was not coined by Ariel.  Its going to be a good night of fights.  This Money Bet is going to be on the curtain jerker. 

Joanne Calderwood (-105)                             Katlyn Chookagian (-105)

            13-3                                                                 12-2

So I’ve been extremely hesitant about making picks on the last couple of cards since Rose lost.  I’m about to make a make a pick based on my fandom but I have the stats to back up the pick.

	Katlyn Chookgian	Joanne Calderwood
Striking
Strikes Landed per Min. (SLpM)	4.08	5.86
Striking Accuracy	31%	50%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. (SApM)	4.21	4.14
Defense	63%	49%
Grappling
Takedowns Average/15 min.	0.00	1.61
Takedown Accuracy	0%	52%
Takedown Defense	63%	53%
Submission Average/15 min.	0.2	0.7

Bias Disclosure.  So strikes landed is strong predictive indicator so that’s why I’m picking JoJo.  Another reason is her 31% accuracy of Chookgian.  This is mostly because she dances around trying to point fight.  She throws pillow punches and kicks so she hasn’t finished a ingle fight in the UFC.  She has similar style to Holly Holm but she has less power, no setups and more evasive.  Honestly I can’t stand her fighting style.  I feel like her ground is so bad that she avoids any kind of engagement.  I can’t wait till she gets cut. JoJo is going to get her to the ground and GnP if she doesn’t knock her out on the feet.  I’ve got 27 left in my bank roll.  I’m putting down my last $20 on JoJo which would result in a payout of $19.05.

The Misfit - Jessica Eye

So I just read Jessica's article on The Player's Tribune The Misfit. I never read the Player's Tribune before but if you haven't its essentially short stories or articles by athletes.  I enjoyed the article its not a long read so I suggest reading it.  I will tell you this it definitely made me more of a Jessica Eye fan.  I'm glad the UFC finally made the 125 division.  She was definitely to small for 135 and shown that this is her weightclass.  Jessica Eye first caught my eye in her second fight in Bellator she was fighting Zola Gurgel.  This fight stood out to me because of how it ended.  Jessica had locked in a standing arm triangle which i've seen locked in before but never finished while standing.  I was very excited and was in total arm chair coach mode. At the time, I was adamant that she wouldn't be able to finish the submission and she should just not waste the energy trying to lock it in and just use the choke to take her to the ground. Boy was I wrong, she locked that standing arm triangle and that was the first time I've seen that submission locked in while standing.  I don't think people understand its very hard to cut the angle while standing to lock it in you hat use a lot of muscle because you can't angle out like you could on the ground.  It was very impressive. I watch a lot of fights and never seen that before, so I was excited to see her in the UFC and even after a four fight losing streak she is still here and now fighting for the title.  This Saturday Jessica Eye faces Valentina Shevshenko.




Yes! Those are odds are crazy high, Jessica Eye is the biggest underdog on the card.  Though I enjoyed the article and will be rooting for Jessica.  I will not be betting on Jessica Eye.  The Rocky Story was last week with Andy Ruiz its not happening again that soon but you never know its the fight game.

Sports Betting Update: When and Where

Based on reports from the Washington City Paper, you will not see mobile sports betting until January 2020.  However, DC will be issuing Class A sports licensing around September which have been designated at the major stadiums Nats, Capital One Arena, etc... At that time Class B licenses which can be setup up by individuals.  I'm guessing the Class B licenses will partner with sports bars who aren't 2 blocks away from the major sports arenas.   The converted Green Turtle space in Gallery Place is going to be packed in September.  Its proximity to the metro and its nullification of competition from nearby bars will make it a prime location for sports betting. I'm curious to see what the Entertainment and Sports Arena does.  It is home to the Mystics and NBA Development team those aren't major draws compared to NBA, NHL, and MLB so I'm curious what they will do with the space now that they can make revenue off of concessions and wagering.  I haven't visited the arena yet I did have tickets to the PFL but it was the same day as the baby shower so I just had to pass on it.  Looking forwarded to seeing how all of this plays out. 

See the below link for the full article.  More updates will follow.

https://www.washingtoncitypaper.com/sports/article/21068480/dc-committee-on-finance-and-revenue-concerned-with-additional-delay-of-public-sports-betting-app

Monday Morning Quarterback

I didn’t see that coming and If you saw the slam coming you are lying or you should be my new consultant once sports betting is a go in DC.  Seeing the rumblings I think people who are in the “know” of the sport figured that Rose was going to win.  You can see as the fight progressed.  Rose had the superior stand up skills, her footwork was on point and there was no way Rose was going to get caught with any looping shots.  Rose starting locking in a kimura to counter the first slam attempt and was able to get out of the situation but the second time she held on to long when being elevated and Jessica Andrade just slammed her on her neck.   That was it.  I’ve seen Andrade rag doll Claudia Gadelha at least three times in their fight but it was nothing like that slam at UFC 237.  This is why I love this sport, you never know what’s going to happen you can be winning bell to bell until you get caught and that’s what happened.  I would like to say this Rose was only 2-2 and when she fought for the title the first time at the end of the Ultimate Fighter Finale.  She is now only 8-4 this isn’t the career progression that the majority of the champions go through. They have a lot more experience. 

This is a learning experience for Rose. When she comes back she will be a better fight.  Ever time she experiences a loss she comes back a stronger fighter. 

Jesus Christ boy am I making a case to my wife that I should be allowed cart blanche in sports betting because I know how to pick them.  My bankroll is $37.  Freak Slam KO suck rocks fight gods. 

Anderson Silva stop BJ Penn please stop.  Its fucking sad I can’t watch these guys fight anymore.  Anderson Silva OMG no one wants to see their Idol’s getting seriously injured.  Your 44 years old go to Bellator or China   Why can’t we get BJ Penn in a grappling tournament how about combat Jiu-Jitsu.  Dana White stop booking these guys release them.  You can’t be a party to this stuff anymore.  Its fucking sad. STOP. Please STOP!!!!

I will post the odds for UFC Fight Night; Dos Anjos vs Lee later on when I'm not at work.  

Happy Anniversary Vicki Love Yo

The Money Bet #8

So, I preface this weeks pick that. Yes I let my fandom interfere with my pick. If I own a guy’s T-shirt and wore it during his fights I probably should understand that I have bias.  Also, another note about that fight whoever was the judge that gave Cub Swanson 30-27 needs to be brought out to the middle of the street and shot. There is now way he won all three rounds. What fight were you watching.  Stop judging please.  Ok to my point.  I’m a huge Thug Rose fan but I’m also a huge Jessica Andrade fan.  Me and my friend Horty went to the fights in San Diego for the UFC Fight Night: Frank Mir vs Todd Duffee.  I sat right next to where the fighters walk out 23 fighters passed me by, only one fighter gave me a high five< Jessica Andrade.  She went out of her way to give me a high five.

On top of that I got married to my beautiful wife Victoria on May 13, 2017, where Andrade fought Joanna Jedrejczjk I put $20 bucks on Andrade to win at the sportsbook of the MGM Grand. Once again I am a fan of this woman. I love her fighting style.  She is ferocious.  She has only two punches; left haymaker and right haymaker which totally KO’ed Karolina Kowalkiewic for the first time in her career.  The way she just buzzed saw through Claudia Gadelha exhibiting some of the most devastating ground n’ pound I have ever seen in the women’s division.  I am a huge fan of both of these ladies. 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           

Jessica Andrade (-120)                                                           Rose Namajunas (+100)

            (19-6)                                                                                      (8-3)

I’m picking THUG ROSE!! THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE LETS GO!!!! THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE Mother Fucking THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE LETS GO!!!!!  THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE THUGE ROSE THUG ROSE

She is a complete fighter, she has hands, a ground game and foot work that will pick her apart.  I can’t believe the betting odds in this fight.  Precision beats power and timing beats speed.  Thug Rose all day!!! I’m about to empty my bankroll on this one.  I’m putting $40 dollars out of my $67