Beneil Dariush vs Charles Oliveira

 Beneil Dariush vs Charles Oliveira 

According to UFC Stats Charles Oliveira has been dropped in his last 3 fights. Islam, Justin and Dustin all dropped him. I count the first RD 1 in the Chandler fight as a drop but the UFC Stats doesn’t so it should be 4.  The biggest reason I see that Dustin and Justin lost as both seemed to be afraid of Charles guard and just lacked sub defense.  I think Charles' guard is overstated as Chandler and Islam spent a significant amount of time in Charles’ guard and came away unscathed. If the trend continues, taking advantage of Charles getting hurt and going to ground will be paramount. However, Dustin and Justin basically told him to get back up as they were afraid to be in Charles guard and failed to capitalize on Charles being hurt unlike Chandler and Islam did.  Beneil will have no issue with being on top of Charles Oliveira. After watching the grappling exchanges with Garmot and Ferguson you can see how good Benny’s top game is.   Beneil’s ability to stay on top in scramble positions is one of the biggest predictors in maintaining top control in grappling exchanges.  Honestly when it comes to the ground game I give Beniel the edge Benny mixes his striking and grappling to get the fight to the ground.. I haven't seen tape on Beneil getting caught coming in with strikes with his takedown entries.  When it comes to the striking department It seems Charles has more weapons Beniel will have to address Charles teep kick and knees up the middle.  How I see this fight going is striking exchanges will be even perhaps Benny might be able to continue streak of dropping Charles but when it comes to the grappling exchanges I see Benny winning those. I predict Beneil being able to get on top allude Charles sub attempts and land enough GnP to avoid stand ups and win by decision. I put some of @NateLatshaw stats from these guys give him a follow.  These stats are pretty much in line with my narrative.  You gotta go with the guy who has better takedown defense, control time, striking differential.  

Offensive Striking
	Charles Oliveira	Beniel Darisuh
% of Time Spent at Distance	42%	51%
Distance Significant Strikes Landed per Minute at Distance	4.86	4.91

Defensive Striking
Distance Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute at Distance	5.17	3.86
Knocked Down Rate	1.1%	1.0%
Distance Significant Strike Defense	57%	64%

Offensive Wrestling/Grappling
Control Rate of Clinch/Ground Time	47%	82%
% of Time Spent in Control Position	28%	40%
Total Takedown Ratio	34:20	26:9
Takedown Accuracy	40%	34%
Takedowns Attempted per 5 Minutes at Distance	4.67	3.72
Total Submission Attempt Ratio	40:10	12:11
Defensive Wrestling/Grappling
% of Time Spent Being Controlled	31%	9%
Takedown Attempts Faced	45	46
Takedown Defense	56%	80%
Takedowns Faced per 5 Minutes at Distance	2.50	2.25

The Casual Bettor #3 UFC 274

 

That one hurt, spiritually, emotionally, and financially. It’s the most I’ve ever betted before and therefore it was the most I’ve ever lost. I’m writing this on Wednesday because I didn’t time to calculate my actual tickets. I’m down -129 a bunch on Rose and the Trevor Wittman Parlay which is a garbage parlay. I threw of couple of my bucks on some props for fun. Thinking at least I would be covered on the Rose bet. Honestly, I should have cashed out once I saw Drake make a bet on Gaethje. That motherfucker is the kiss of death. The Drake curse is real. I betted Charles against Tony. I managed to bet Charles live against Poirier mainly because I was a fan of Poirier and Charles. I faded Charles because I’ve seen him get dropped in his two last title fights. I’d figured “measured and composed” Gaethje could get the job. Down but Gaethje obviously has a gaping hole in Jiu Jitsu and seemed to overextend himself. I think people want to fade Charles for whatever reason but it’s kind of like Francisco Trinaldo he might be 43 and should be technically slowing down but you can’t fade him until you actually see him slowing down.   Charles is going to be the champion for a while. Now for Rose… just didn’t see not having offense as possible outcome. Rose struggling to get off the ground. A possibility. Rose trading haymakers not really a thought but it’s an outcome. Feinting on the outside for 5 rounds with very limited engagement not something I could think of. Its like freak injuries, it’s a possibility but you can’t bank on it.

               The biggest lesson I learned was bankroll management and betting discipline. I was getting overconfident with the Puelles bet and this was a great lesson that I needed to learn. I didn’t finish writing this until 5/16. I put $3 three fight parlay that got busted Rakic with the freak accident was in it, so it is what is. I feel like I’m ready to get back in the MMA betting game. I had time to lick my wounds. I think the emotional investment in Rose as fan took something out of me. I should not have those problems. I don’t know. We gotta get back on the horse and put these bets in.  

The Casual Bettor #2 UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Vera

So my only pick initially was Gina I laid a solid $25 at -160. Didn't go my way.   I also made parlay and got drunk at an all you can eat drink before the fights and made the Collier fight which i was robbed of and then bet the Prop of Chito by decision and clutched my pearls for 3 rounds as Chito kept dropping Font and almost finishing him but the MMA gods shined on my.

All in all I'm down on this $27.95 this week. 

Recapping The Causal Bettor #1 UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade

 I've rebranded again.  Trying to reinvent my style of betting and what my style of betting is only betting on fights that I got a good read on from the jump.  I don't need to go back re-watch tape.  I know what the fighters can do and what they can't.  I also need to stop capping myself on these balls to bones. These feelings don't come that often and I should just stick with my gut.   I wanted to empty all my accounts on Puelles.  I also need to consider moving money out of one these accounts. So in DC they legalized sports betting in 2020.  Sole city wide mobile app is run by the DC Lottery and it offered horrendous odds.  Which left everyone to use the brick and motor sportsbook which also has a mobile app but only works within 2 blocks from the sports book.  Unlike across the river in VA where they have multiple mobile app sportsbooks.  Honestly I think the city has improved the odds because people literally weren't using it.  People were traveling to Capital One Arena (Home to the Caps and Wizards) than use the mobile app from their couch.  So that's the reason for why you so three different tickets. I have three different sports betting accounts.  What did I learn this week.  Stop making parlays off of other peoples reads and research and no my hate beating.  That Montana De La Rosa but was not necessary. Lets count my tickets.

Event	Monyline	Bet	Payout
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade	Puelles/Andrade Parlay + 175	$5	$13.79
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade	Puelles by Sub +400	$8	$40
Bellator 278: Velasquez vs. Carmouche	Carmouche +115	$4	$8.60
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade	Puelles +110	$15	$31.50
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade	Puelles -115	$25	$46.75
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade	De La Rosa +140	$4	-4
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade	Prachnio/Pedro/Qileng/Barrault/Puelles/Andrade	$5	-5
Total for the Night			$131.64

As usual one off the parlay, I need to only parlay fights I'm sure about didn't need put Prachino in the mix.  Parlays should be 5 or less. No more hail mary's. They look cool but you are always be one off after a certain number.   It was a good night.  Learning to pick my spots or just don't bet.  No sprinkling here or there of a what if.

I just kept betting Puelles.

 I was up watching some of he NBA Playoffs and put a bet on the Mavs.  Then I decided why not put another bet on Puelles. 

Then i was thinking Prachino ruined my parlay. So how about we put some more money on Puelles and just call the sub and wrap in the main event as a parlay.  Sounds fun.

So I call my self being disciplined but I rarely have these feelings that in no shadow of doubt that this fight is gong to happen like this and the odds are extremely off.  

The Causal Bettor #1 UFC Fight Night Lemos vs. Andrade

 

I doing a horrible job at making my picks transparent here are my bets.  So one bet in particularly I need to address is the Claudio Puelles vs Clay Guida.  Clay is 40, years old. He has cardio but he was getting his ass kicked by another 40 year old Leonardo Santos.  Until Leonardo Santos finally gassed out from punching him and in turn lost. Let's not talk about his Michael Johnson win with his streak of constant bed shitting.  Michael Johnson has found a way to beat himself in his last four fights.  So once I saw the initial line of +110 I jumped out on it but I only bet $15. I'm trying to still say conservative but I couldn't help and laid some more on at -115 and I don't regret it.

So here are my bets:

Claudio Puelles +110 $15

Montana De La Rosa +140 $4 (Maycee Barber Hate Bet)

Claudio Puelles -115 $25 (Honestly I wanted empty all my accounts into this bet so this is me being conservative)

 Parlay 6 fight 

Marcin Prachino

Tyson Pedro

Qileng Aori

Marc-Andre Barriault

Claudio Puelles

Jessica Andrade

$5 gets me $63 or something

This is my shitty blog.  I plan to keep better track of my winnings and discuss my takes and learn from my mistakes.  Was it worth $4 betting against Maycee Barber.  Time will tell.  

Breaking Down Ngannou vs Gane: UFC 270

Let's take a look at this line 
 

Currently Caesars has the odds sitting -155 Gane +130 Ngannou.  Gane's ability to pick Derrick apart was great.  The performance was outstanding it was a flawless victory.  Derrick quickly shown that one fight did not define he fought another Heavyweight with good footwork and movement and quickly shut up any naysayers.  Like I learned with Katter last week we can define a fighter by one fight there are times where we say a fighter has "Stolen their Soul" that comes with accumulation of damage and age.  Or Derrick Lewis situation fighting in his hometown for the title was to much pressure.  He admitted and he had bad night in the office.  Just like we saw last week -240 Giga Chikadze. Yes the mans run to that title fight was impressive but we took that run coupled by Holloway beatdown and just dismissed what the man has done.  This line is indicative of what you have last seen which is impressive.  I am going to post the round by round strikes and you can understand why bettors are leaning Gane and later on I'll post the numbers why shouldn't.   

Lewis vs Gane 

This shit is flawless but ignores Gane's game plan and Francis Ngannou's ability to shut anyone's lights out at any given moment.  

Gane's game plan is based on footwork and feint's in order to gain timing and tendencies of his opponent.  He feels his opponents out in the first round for the most part obviously you are going to have certain performances that go against narrative but for the most part Ciryl Gane in 1st round is only collecting data he probes plots and stays on the outside to get the reads for his next round of attacks in for the next rounds.  

I didn't put all of his performances because obviously Lewis fight was different and Dos Santos was way past his prime. Unless you are a lesser an opponent and don't respect his game this is how he is going to fight.

1st Round	Total Strikes
Ciryl Gane	16 of 32
Alexander Volkov	26 of 26
Jairzinho Rozenstruik	10 of 20
Cirly Gane	16 of 24
Ciryl Gane	10 of 38
Tanner Bowser	10 of 31

Francis on the other hand only has to hit you one time.  The man hasn't been dropped in the fight. He has not been hurt.  Gane isn't gong to to grapple with him.  Other than the first Stipe fight and his completely gun shy mental breakdown which we call the Derrick Lewis fight his opponents haven't left the 2nd round with the majority being first round finishes.  How are you going to get reads to implement your game if you major concern is surviving.  Ngannous by KO 2nd round.  

Slips #1 (2022)

 

So we stunk up the joint last week.  So I’m in a bet league with MMALOTN podcast host Manpreet Jhass.  Essentially you pick any straight bet under -300 odds my pick for that league was Viacheslav Borshchev at -190 that pick.  The man finished in the first with a beautiful body shot and what I saw from him his debut from the Contender Series unfolded.  The man has great striking I would continue to roll with the Russian until he fights a collegiate wrestler who can just hold him down.  I got greedy parlaying Giga who hindsight was way more than a favorite than he needed to be at -240.  Again these lines are based on recency and Kattar’s last fight was on Annie’s birthday in which he got styled on in lopsided ass whoopin which erased the fact that the man has gone 5 rounds twice and at the hands of the best who is blessed.  I should have parlayed him with Katlyn the decision machine.  Or just bet the man straight and take the profit.  That’s something I’m not going to do due again.  If I have bet that I’m confident on there really is no need to sweetin the odds with a parlay stick my gut bet which are bigger bets and let it stand on its own. 

Again my Parlay had two contender series alum who didn’t show up.  Ugly Man Holmes should that he can style on regional talent but a decent athletic fighter with the basics can just weather the storm and get a decision.  Joanderson Brito also didn’t show up he was I call a plan A fighter because if he can’t get the takedown he doesn’t have a Plan B.  His opponent was able to get back to his feet and his takedown shot attempts were draining on his cardio.  The man looked exhausted in the cage. 

The next bet was a sprinkle on Rosa.  He was underdog this bet was mostly made because I was going to bet against him when his opponent was Gabriel Benitez but on 3 days notice he got Charles Rosa.  Charles Rosa should some slick grappling he kept going for subs rather than maintaining  control.  Rosa got have one the second round if he just maintained top control but instead he went for transitions and lost control  eventually TJ Brown gassed in the 3^rd so Rosa picked up one round. 

The one winner I had was Jake Collier which I made after I went to the sportsbook . I bet him straight. Jake caught a kick took Chase Sherman down and choked him up in a matter of moments.  It wasn’t a total loss but I for now on I’m going to just do one parlay and couple straight bets. 

The only betting stat you need for UFC 268

Rose is facing Weili Zhang again. They first fought on April 24, 2021 and then this happened.

First round finish, not a fluke, she dropped, swarmed her with hammer fists and the ref saved Zhang.  I don't believe in immediate rematches after a clear finish there isn't a point to it if there are other challengers in the wing.   I also don't understand this betting line below.

Rose is the best she has proven over and over again. She already beat her, handily. She only lost the belt to Andrade after holding on to an armbar to long and she got slammed on her head.  She was winning that fight but this is MMA. There are so many ways to win and to lose.  I can go on and on about Thug Rose but I digress.  The only thing you need to know this week is for Challengers seeking an immediate rematch after losing to their opponent in a Title Fight. The Challenger is 1-9 in immediate rematches against the Champion.  Randy Couture being the only person to get the belt back after an immediate rematch.  Get your bets in.  The Champion has 90% chance they win the rematch.  

The Slips #1

 

So sports betting has been legal in DC for sometime now.  I was reluctant to sharing my bets mainly out of fear of losing.  But that’s going to happen, the question is are you winning the majority of the time.  I can tell you honestly that I wasn’t up until my recent wager.  Sometimes because it was a close fight and the decisions didn’t go my way.  Sometimes I simply didn’t do the research and relied on recency bias.  A lot of times I bet the day of 3 or 5 dollars on one of my favorites.  So I started writing this Saturday and didn’t finish but I was going to go on and rant on by why I made my pick and how everyone else were wrong about Kevin Holland and Charles Oliveira.  I could go on about Kevin Holland’s 9 inch reach advantage his youth advantage over inactive 41 year old Jacare. Or I could talk about the Oliveira 7 fight win streak and all being finishes and Tony’s non-existent edge on grappling since Oliveira has 19 finishes via submission one those being rare in MMA calf slicer.  The narrative that I thought would play out happened.  I felt strong enough to put a bet on it and write about it.  Strong enough to where I would I tell Vicki we need to mortgage the house on it. I would never do that but sometimes I feel things are just locks.  Writing this blog has helped me recognize that these “locks” or “I told you so” aren’t going to come every card. I felt very strongly about this card.  So I picked Holland and Oliveira. It worked

Relationships between fight outcomes and the 25 foot cage

Relationships between fight outcomes and the 25 foot cage.

The UFC normally is in the 30 foot cage on rare occasions has the Octagon been in 25 foot cage. Since moving out the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, FL a large arena where there was 30 foot cage.  After holding three events in Jacksonville, the UFC has now moved back to Vegas in the UFC Apex Center home to Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender (DWTNC) series where the cage is 25 feet.  Obviously the biggest difference is space.  Cage awareness is definitely a skill.  Knowing where you have space to back up and when you need to circle out is in important.  You have less space to be evasive and better chance to put your opponent against the cage.  My first hypothesis is that an aggressive fighter with higher degree of output and takedowns would have a higher probability of winning the fight but that’s the case for all fights so I will take a look at the finishing rate.

Dana’s White Tuesday Night Contender Season Finishing Rate

Season 1	25 out of 40	63%
Season 2	33 out of 40	83%
Season 3	25 out of 49	51%

 

The level of talent and the go for broke attitude to get a contract has a lot to do with those numbers but we will be comparing the last three fights in Jacksonville with the next three fights in at the UFC Apex. The most comparable situation to DWTNCS is The Ultimate Fighter: Finale.  In the early 2000s these fights were held at the Palms Casino a smaller venue that used the 25 foot cage. Also in terms of skill fighters from the show are coming off the regional scene and a win in the finale is guaranteed path to an extended UFC contract. 

Ultimate fighter finale 7:  Forrest Griffin vs Rampage Jackson	7  out of 10	10
Ultimate fighter finale 6: Hughes vs Serra	8 out of 9	9
Ultimate fighter finale 5: Penn vs Pulver	9 out of 9	9
	24	28	0.857142857

 

Just look at these stats I think its safe to say that the smaller cage has an effect.  On average the finishing rate for an event is 44% -  48%

 

30 Foot Cage	Finishes	25 Foot Cage	Finishes
UFC 249	5 out of 11	Fight Night: Woodley vs Burns	6 out of 11
Fight Night: Smith vs Teixeira	5 out of 10	UFC 250	7 out of 12
Fight Night: Overeem vs Harris	5 out of 11
Average	46.88%