Slips #1 (2022)

 

So we stunk up the joint last week.  So I’m in a bet league with MMALOTN podcast host Manpreet Jhass.  Essentially you pick any straight bet under -300 odds my pick for that league was Viacheslav Borshchev at -190 that pick.  The man finished in the first with a beautiful body shot and what I saw from him his debut from the Contender Series unfolded.  The man has great striking I would continue to roll with the Russian until he fights a collegiate wrestler who can just hold him down.  I got greedy parlaying Giga who hindsight was way more than a favorite than he needed to be at -240.  Again these lines are based on recency and Kattar’s last fight was on Annie’s birthday in which he got styled on in lopsided ass whoopin which erased the fact that the man has gone 5 rounds twice and at the hands of the best who is blessed.  I should have parlayed him with Katlyn the decision machine.  Or just bet the man straight and take the profit.  That’s something I’m not going to do due again.  If I have bet that I’m confident on there really is no need to sweetin the odds with a parlay stick my gut bet which are bigger bets and let it stand on its own. 

Again my Parlay had two contender series alum who didn’t show up.  Ugly Man Holmes should that he can style on regional talent but a decent athletic fighter with the basics can just weather the storm and get a decision.  Joanderson Brito also didn’t show up he was I call a plan A fighter because if he can’t get the takedown he doesn’t have a Plan B.  His opponent was able to get back to his feet and his takedown shot attempts were draining on his cardio.  The man looked exhausted in the cage. 

The next bet was a sprinkle on Rosa.  He was underdog this bet was mostly made because I was going to bet against him when his opponent was Gabriel Benitez but on 3 days notice he got Charles Rosa.  Charles Rosa should some slick grappling he kept going for subs rather than maintaining  control.  Rosa got have one the second round if he just maintained top control but instead he went for transitions and lost control  eventually TJ Brown gassed in the 3^rd so Rosa picked up one round. 

The one winner I had was Jake Collier which I made after I went to the sportsbook . I bet him straight. Jake caught a kick took Chase Sherman down and choked him up in a matter of moments.  It wasn’t a total loss but I for now on I’m going to just do one parlay and couple straight bets. 

The only betting stat you need for UFC 268

Rose is facing Weili Zhang again. They first fought on April 24, 2021 and then this happened.

First round finish, not a fluke, she dropped, swarmed her with hammer fists and the ref saved Zhang.  I don't believe in immediate rematches after a clear finish there isn't a point to it if there are other challengers in the wing.   I also don't understand this betting line below.

Rose is the best she has proven over and over again. She already beat her, handily. She only lost the belt to Andrade after holding on to an armbar to long and she got slammed on her head.  She was winning that fight but this is MMA. There are so many ways to win and to lose.  I can go on and on about Thug Rose but I digress.  The only thing you need to know this week is for Challengers seeking an immediate rematch after losing to their opponent in a Title Fight. The Challenger is 1-9 in immediate rematches against the Champion.  Randy Couture being the only person to get the belt back after an immediate rematch.  Get your bets in.  The Champion has 90% chance they win the rematch.  

The Slips #1

 

So sports betting has been legal in DC for sometime now.  I was reluctant to sharing my bets mainly out of fear of losing.  But that’s going to happen, the question is are you winning the majority of the time.  I can tell you honestly that I wasn’t up until my recent wager.  Sometimes because it was a close fight and the decisions didn’t go my way.  Sometimes I simply didn’t do the research and relied on recency bias.  A lot of times I bet the day of 3 or 5 dollars on one of my favorites.  So I started writing this Saturday and didn’t finish but I was going to go on and rant on by why I made my pick and how everyone else were wrong about Kevin Holland and Charles Oliveira.  I could go on about Kevin Holland’s 9 inch reach advantage his youth advantage over inactive 41 year old Jacare. Or I could talk about the Oliveira 7 fight win streak and all being finishes and Tony’s non-existent edge on grappling since Oliveira has 19 finishes via submission one those being rare in MMA calf slicer.  The narrative that I thought would play out happened.  I felt strong enough to put a bet on it and write about it.  Strong enough to where I would I tell Vicki we need to mortgage the house on it. I would never do that but sometimes I feel things are just locks.  Writing this blog has helped me recognize that these “locks” or “I told you so” aren’t going to come every card. I felt very strongly about this card.  So I picked Holland and Oliveira. It worked

Relationships between fight outcomes and the 25 foot cage

Relationships between fight outcomes and the 25 foot cage.

The UFC normally is in the 30 foot cage on rare occasions has the Octagon been in 25 foot cage. Since moving out the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, FL a large arena where there was 30 foot cage.  After holding three events in Jacksonville, the UFC has now moved back to Vegas in the UFC Apex Center home to Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender (DWTNC) series where the cage is 25 feet.  Obviously the biggest difference is space.  Cage awareness is definitely a skill.  Knowing where you have space to back up and when you need to circle out is in important.  You have less space to be evasive and better chance to put your opponent against the cage.  My first hypothesis is that an aggressive fighter with higher degree of output and takedowns would have a higher probability of winning the fight but that’s the case for all fights so I will take a look at the finishing rate.

Dana’s White Tuesday Night Contender Season Finishing Rate

Season 1	25 out of 40	63%
Season 2	33 out of 40	83%
Season 3	25 out of 49	51%

 

The level of talent and the go for broke attitude to get a contract has a lot to do with those numbers but we will be comparing the last three fights in Jacksonville with the next three fights in at the UFC Apex. The most comparable situation to DWTNCS is The Ultimate Fighter: Finale.  In the early 2000s these fights were held at the Palms Casino a smaller venue that used the 25 foot cage. Also in terms of skill fighters from the show are coming off the regional scene and a win in the finale is guaranteed path to an extended UFC contract. 

Ultimate fighter finale 7:  Forrest Griffin vs Rampage Jackson	7  out of 10	10
Ultimate fighter finale 6: Hughes vs Serra	8 out of 9	9
Ultimate fighter finale 5: Penn vs Pulver	9 out of 9	9
	24	28	0.857142857

 

Just look at these stats I think its safe to say that the smaller cage has an effect.  On average the finishing rate for an event is 44% -  48%

 

30 Foot Cage	Finishes	25 Foot Cage	Finishes
UFC 249	5 out of 11	Fight Night: Woodley vs Burns	6 out of 11
Fight Night: Smith vs Teixeira	5 out of 10	UFC 250	7 out of 12
Fight Night: Overeem vs Harris	5 out of 11
Average	46.88%

UFC 248 Recap

So bank roll after UFC the Anderson vs Blachowicz Card is $152.70

I did not put pen to paper but I had to help my cousin move so I did speak out into existence so that counts.  I wanted to put the house on Gerald Meerschaert. but I only put $30 that turned into $43.00 so I'm back up to 175.70.  

I've got $50 bucks on Kevin Lee at -130.  

UFC 247 Recap and Anderson vs Blachowicz

I got screwed the judging was horrid and I basically got screwed out of $40 bucks.  The judge who scored the Jones fight 49-46 also gave Andre Ewell 30-27 and a gave Trevin Giles the first round despite the fact he spent the 4 minutes  of round defending a rear naked choke.  I’m also done another $25 because Chookagian has no ground and got stopped in the third.  I’m not mad at that bet.  I thought i was getting pretty good odds considering Chookagian’s style.  I can’t be pissed at that bet but I’m pissed in the judging it really screwed me.  What I’m happy about is that If you had a competent judge.  I just confirmed on Twitter that Ewell severely injured his arm.  He didn’t state that it was broke but he admitted he was fighting with one arm. Also well noted even despite that the judges gave it to Giles my initial pick of Arroyo probably would have worked out.  If you can barely beat welterweight taking the fight on days notice you probably couldn’t beat a true middleweight with a full camp.   I guess its time to move on from the horrible judging from UFC 247 because this MMA train won’t stop.  

Took a hit to the roll $237.55 - $65 = $172.55.  Let’s try not go on tilt on this card. 

UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Błachowicz 2

Corey Anderson (-190) vs Jan Blachowicz (+165)

I would have loved to get on the opening line of this fight.  As it opened up at -145 and has gotten back up to -210 today of the weigh-ins  Initially started writing this on Thursday.  I’ve talked about Corey before the guy has turned a corner and he is just getting better.  Put the house on Anderson or just $30.

Diego Sanchez (+145) vs Michel Pereira (-155)

I picking Diego here. Normally I would stay away with him leaving Jackson/Wink but I’m picking him for one reason and one reason only. CARDIO.  Michel Pereira will be doing flips, spinning shit, and dancing around the cage.  He is also a huge Welterweight and the fact he does all those explosive movements he is going to gas.  Let’s look for Sanchez to take this to the ground.  I’ve got $7 on Sanchez.

UFC 247

So I lost $3.33 on my last bunch of bets. I’m bankroll is down from 240.88 to 237.55.  So that my current bankroll I haven’t lost the house yet but I’ve lost a Chop’t Salad $12.45 since i started out with $250.00

UFC 247

Jon Jones (c)	vs.	Dominick Reyes
Valentina Shevchenko (c)	vs.	Katlyn Chookagian
Juan Adams	vs.	Justin Tafa
Mirsad Bektić	vs.	Dan Ige
Derrick Lewis	vs.	Ilir Latifi
Trevin Giles	vs.	Antonio Arroyo
Alex Morono	vs.	Kalinn Williams
Lauren Murphy	vs.	Andrea Lee
Miles Johns	vs.	Mario Bautista
Journey Newson	vs.	Domingo Pilarte
Andre Ewell	vs.	Jonathan Martinez
Austin Lingo	vs.	Youseff Zalal

Andre Ewell (-128) vs Jonathan Martinez (+118)

I kinda don’t understand why Andre Ewell is the favorite none of the fights Ewell has won are fighters who are currently in the UFC beating Renan Baro post USADA is not a feat.  Martinez only UFC to low fight IQ Andre Soukhamthath (watch the 3rd round of Sean O’Malley fight to the IQ reference). Andre is a big bantamweight who tends to fade in the 3rd.  He is very aggresive which really complements Martinez’s style either of them push the ground game much but look out for Martinez’s counters in the match up i got $30 on this matchup.

We are going to get into Prop bets for the first time here. So were are going to pick a Prop bet for the Shevchenko vs Cookagian fight.  Since the straight moneyline for this fight is insane. Valentina is around (-855) favorite and in some books (-1600). For  reference I get my moneylines from 5dimes.  At those lines there isn’t really any value in betting Valetina and I hate Chookagian fighting style and i can’t wait for her to get KO’d and will be against her at all times.  Even with that emotion i will not bet the moneyline because there is no value however

Valentina Shevchenko (-125) to win by decision. 

Shevchenko is a monster she is Muay Thai specialist but she is a complete fighter and I think P4P best female fighter in the world.  She won that second fight with Amanda Nunes.   However, how dominant she might be those finishes are hard to get when a fighter doesn’t want to engage.  Chookagian game plan will be circle, not engage, and lose by decision.  He favorite strikes are air strikes.  She will unload combos at the air at will.  God I hate fighting style.  She is like Holly Holm but more boring and less finishes and a worst Instagram.  So I got $25 on Valentina to win by decision.

Trevin Giles (-145) vs Antonio Arroyo (+135)

I got pick a an underdog Antonio is my underdog for this card.  Trevin Giles is an undersized Middleweight. He will have the crowd behind him which will either help or hurt as a Houston Cop.  I’ve got Arroyo because he has got a lot of power and good ground defense.  I’m was impressed with his last loss because it was against a ground specialist with the majority of his wins were by submission.  Being able to get out of bad positions and back to your feet is a must at this level.  Look at for the body kick by Arroyo.  I’ve got $20 on Arroyo.  This is why I stop doing the whole deep dive on one fight because as you can see I think half the time a fight gets pulled its during or right after weigh-ins.  Antonio Arroyo successfully made weight but ended up passing out afterwards.  He was taken to the hospital. Now taking the fight on one day notice is James Krause.  Whose welterweight and basically just taking the fight at his walking around weight.  The line on this fight is even, Vegas thinks he is a live dog and with 6 fight win streak I’m going to put $10 James Krause at -110